Caleb Wilfinger
The first Thursday morning of the NCAA Tournament always feels like Christmas morning to college basketball fans. Considering the drama and intrigue we’ve seen in recent years, I couldn’t be more excited for this edition of March Madness to finally get underway. And what better way to celebrate a massive 16-game college hoops slate on Thursday than with a March Madness parlay? That’s right; I have crafted an NCAA Tournament parlay for today’s games that pays out at nearly 9/1 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for EVERY game throughout March Madness.
UC San Diego ML (+125)
VCU ML (+125)
High Point vs Purdue Over 153 (-110)
March Madness parlay odds: +867
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UC San Diego Tritons ML over Michigan Wolverines (+125)
The ever-popular #12 seed to knock off a #5 seed pick seems to come to fruition every year, and I’m of the belief that this annual tradition will continue on Thursday in the South Region. Just a few years removed from jumping up to the Division I level, UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, winning 30 games (most of which came in dominant fashion) en route to a Big West title and a shot at knocking off the Big Ten champions. It just so happens that the Tritons are well-equipped to pull off the upset as short underdogs in this game to kickstart our March Madness parlay.
From a situational spot perspective, this Michigan team is coming off playing 3 hard-fought games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament title last Sunday. Now, the Wolverines have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a UC San Diego team that is one of the highest-rated mid-major sides ever by the predictive analytic sites. This is a difficult team to prepare for, as the Tritons play a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots for great shots, which is part of why they have a very consistent offense (58th in adjusted efficiency, 30th in two-point percentage, 30th in effective field-goal percentage).
However, the biggest edge in this game for Eric Olen’s team is their ability to force a ton of turnovers (2nd nationally in turnovers forced), while also not turning the ball over themselves. This strength should especially come in handy against an extremely turnover-prone Wolverines offense (328th in turnover percentage) that could find themselves in big trouble against a defense that is elite at defending the paint (93rd percentile in rim defense efficiency). All things considered, I’ll take the Tritons to pull off the outright upset.
Check out our March Madness best bets from our team of CBB experts — we’re 35-19 this season!
VCU Rams ML over BYU Cougars (-110)
Much like a few other contests in the first round, this game features an extreme contrast in styles of play between these 2 teams. BYU is largely a jump-shooting based team that has the ability to knock down shots from all over the court, thanks to the myriad of quality shooters that head coach Kevin Young can have on the floor at any given moment. Conversely, VCU is a team that prides itself on shutting down its opponents, as the Rams are the top defense in the nation in effective field goal percentage, while also sitting at 4th nationally in two-point percentage defense.
The Rams are also known for their high-pressure defense, which should see consistent success against a BYU team that is no stranger to turning the ball over. BYU is outside the top 200 in turnover percentage on the season, and the Cougars just committed well over 20 turnovers in a recent win over Iowa State (a game where BYU blew a 20-point 2nd-half lead). With that in mind, it’s hard not to back a VCU defense that also defends the three-ball very well, which is obviously where this BYU team wants to live. The Rams are also rock solid on the glass (11th in offensive rebounding rate), so they just hold too many advantages for me to overlook them in this matchup. All things considered, I’ll back VCU to get the outright win as short underdogs.
Let the madness begin! Shoot for the moon with our 16-leg March Madness millionaire parlay at ENORMOUS +33679 odds!
High Point Panthers vs Purdue Boilermakers Over 153 (-110)
Champions of the Big South, High Point boasts one of the deepest mid-major rosters in the nation, including a couple of Power 4 conference transfers littered across the roster that make up one of the best bench units in the country. The Panthers’ offense is elite (top 25 in adjusted efficiency per KenPom & Barttorvik) and they can score both on the break and in a halfcourt setting, which is key against a Purdue team that won’t offer much resistance in this one. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Panthers were able to get to 75 points against a Purdue defense that isn’t exactly setting the world on fire (68th in adjusted efficiency, 293rd in effective field-goal percentage defense).
On the other side of the ball, I don’t suspect High Point’s defense to have many answers for the Boilermakers offense (8th in adjusted efficiency). Purdue floor general Braden Smith and power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn — one of the best scoring duos in the nation — should dominate High Point’s drop-coverage defense, as the Panthers currently sit at 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. In the same vein, Purdue is shockingly dead last in the country in two-point defense (364th) since January 1, an insane development for a program of its stature.
Simply put, the offensive makeup of both of these teams leads me to believe that both sides should be able to generate consistent offense against these underwhelming defenses. Let’s back the Over in a game that likely won’t feature much defense to speak of to bring home our March Madness parlay.
Get ready for the madness with our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions, including a +6000 longshot! Plus, don’t miss our comprehensive March Madness 68-team bracket guide, featuring analysis of EVERY team in the tournament!
