Matt Marquart
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Let the Madness begin! The First Round of the NCAA Tournament is here and millions of people will be watching with intrigue to see which upsets occur and how quickly their bracket is destroyed. Most importantly here at Pickswise and for our readers, we will be watching how our bets perform. 32 teams will square off to attempt to extend their season for another game, starting with Colorado State and Michigan at 12:15 Eastern Time on CBS. From that moment until midnight, there won’t be a minute of time that goes by without at least one game in action. Across the 16 games on Thursday, I’ve identified two bets that are worthy of consideration.
Best Bet #1: Memphis/Boise State Under 133
This game starts at 1:45 Eastern Time between #9 Memphis and #8 Boise State. The game will be played in Portland, Oregon and will be shown on TNT. Both teams are excellent on the defensive end, which is obviously ideal when selecting an under. Memphis ranks 31st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, while Boise State ranks 17th. More specifically, both defenses are good interior defenses as well. Boise State’s defense simply does not allow many shots at the rim at all, ranking 61st nationally per Hoop-Math. Their primary defensive goal is to funnel offensive players into the mid-range where shots are inefficient. Hoop-Math data has the Broncos forcing the 14th-highest rate of mid-range jump shots in the entire country.
Memphis allows a bit more of their opponents’ shots to come at the rim, but they don’t allow teams to make many of them. Per Hoop-Math, Memphis ranks 17th in field goal percentage defense and second in block percentage at the rim. Freshman Jalen Duren is the biggest reason why, as he ranks 26th in the country in block rate. Boise State is not the most efficient offense, ranking just 76th in efficiency according to KenPom, so they will likely have a tough time scoring in this game.
From a tempo standpoint, these teams are complete opposites. Memphis plays at the 34th-fastest tempo in the country, while Boise State ranks just 308th in tempo. Knowing this, Boise State is not going to let Memphis play in transition offense. Boise State allows the 27th-lowest transition offense rate to their opponents, which is troubling for a Memphis team that ranks in the 82nd percentile in transition offense versus just the 44th percentile in half-court offense, per Synergy.
Lastly, both teams struggle from the free-throw line, which could allow the game to stay under the total. Boise State is actually the 13th-worst free-throw shooting team in the country at 65 percent, and Memphis is not much better with a rank of 270th. Expect to see a defensive battle where points are at a premium, making the under the logical choice.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Memphis Tigers vs Boise State Broncos
Best Bet #2: South Dakota State/Providence Over 149.5
Another total worth considering is the over in the game between #13 South Dakota State and #4 Providence, as both teams have very clear paths to points in this matchup. This game tips off at 12:40 Eastern Time on truTV.
South Dakota State profiles well as an over team, with their elite offense and questionable defense. The Jackrabbits rank as the 12th-most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom but rank just 220th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also rank 15th in average offensive possession length, as they love to play in transition. This is where South Dakota State could exploit Providence’s defense, as the Jackrabbits rank in the 99th percentile in transition offense, while Providence ranks in just the 11th percentile in transition defense. Expect to see a lot of three-point attempts in the open court from South Dakota State, who is quite literally the best three-point shooting team in the country at 44.2 percent.
On the other end of the court, Providence should be able to score in the paint, particularly with Nate Watson. Watson is used in the post at the 58th-highest rate in the country and ranks in the 80th percentile on post-up plays, per Synergy. As mentioned above, South Dakota State’s defense is below-average overall, but they particularly struggle defending in the post. Per Synergy, the Jackrabbits rank in just the 29th percentile in post-up defense. Expect to see both teams have their way on the offensive end and look for the over to cash.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Providence Friars
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