Caleb Wilfinger
After a long and unpredictable college basketball season, the full 68-team bracket is out and the madness is finally here! Most people would probably define the start of the “madness” portion of March Madness as Thursday’s action, but we have 4 games that will help fill the 48 hours before the greatest 2 days in sports. Before the Round of 64 kicks off, we have the First Four to look forward to, so let’s get into our best bets for the action in Dayton on March 18 and 19.
Winning money in these games counts the same as Thursday and Friday, so read below for 2 college basketball predictions for the First Four games. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
Get ready for the madness with our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions, including a +6000 longshot! Plus, don’t miss our comprehensive March Madness 68-team bracket guide, featuring analysis of EVERY team in the tournament!
North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs 1st Half Under 67.5 (-110)
Historically, the NCAA Tournament has been a heaven for Unders, particularly in the first halves of games in the First Four and Round of 64. I don’t expect that to change on Tuesday as we’ll see the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the San Diego State Aztecs in a game that features a pretty drastic contrast in styles.
Most college basketball fans are aware of San Diego State’s success in March over the last few years, and a large part of that is due to how the Aztecs have been able to control the pace in these postseason games. In fact, San Diego State plays at an extremely slow pace (245th out of 364) and Brian Dutcher’s team generally makes every game a rock fight. On the other side, North Carolina plays a lot faster, but it’s generally easier to slow a game down than drag a slower-paced team into a fast-paced shootout.
It’s certainly fair to assume that the Aztecs will not change their style under any circumstances, instead typically dragging their opponents into the mud as a way to keep the game script to their liking. At least in the early going, I do think the Tar Heels could find themselves in a situation where they let the opponent set the terms, especially if it’s a close game early. I’d also expect an A+ defensive effort from North Carolina given a lot of the commentary around the program following its shocking inclusion in the field.
There’s also the matter of the pressure that both teams will undeniably be facing in a “win or go home” situation, which should lead to a more conservative game script, particularly in the first half. This is a pretty low full-game total, so I’ll opt for backing the first half under instead as one of my First Four best bets.
Read our full North Carolina vs San Diego State prediction
Xavier Musketeers -2.5 over Texas Longhorns (-110)
For my second First Four best bet, we head to Wednesday’s slate for a matchup between the Xavier Musketeers and Texas Longhorns. These are a pair of teams that both played some of their best basketball toward the end of the season, but there are simply more paths for consistent success for this Xavier team on offense compared to what we’re getting with Texas. The Longhorns are an extremely one-dimensional offense that largely revolves around Tre Johnson attempting (and making) a ton of difficult shots. That’s not exactly a sustainable formula for winning in the postseason, especially with Texas going up against a very experienced NCAA tournament coach in Sean Miller, who should have a game plan in place to slow down the Longhorns superstar guard.
On the other side, the Texas defense has been generally pretty decent throughout the season in the SEC. However, things could get turned on their head if the Longhorns are ultimately coaxed into playing a higher-possession game against a Musketeers offense that has been playing at a very high level over the last 6 weeks. The guards for Xavier are the most important factor in this game on both sides, and the Musketeers do have an experienced big man in Zach Freemantle to combat a Longhorns frontcourt that does a poor job of defending the perimeter, and still sends its opponents to the free throw line far too often. Let’s get to the window with Xavier in what should be a home game in Dayton.
Read our expert’s full Xavier vs Texas prediction
