Matt Marquart
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We’ve now had all week to analyze every aspect of Saturday’s Final Four games at the NCAA Tournament. Not only does the time in between Sunday’s Elite Eight games help us land on predicting the teams that will win, but also it helps us create a story of how exactly the games might play out. This can help with building parlays, as we can choose between the point spread, total, and player props based on how we think the games will look. The parlay below is a good place to start for Saturday’s games.
Kansas vs Villanova first half under 61.5 (-112)
North Carolina vs Duke over 151 (-110)
Eric Dixon over 8.5 points (+100)
Parlay odds: +623
Kansas vs Villanova first half under 61.5
The first half under in Kansas vs Villanova is a good place to start on this parlay. Per KenPom, Villanova ranks 345th in adjusted tempo and the Wildcats have been excellent at controlling the pace throughout the NCAA Tournament. Each Villanova tournament game has finished with 62 or fewer possessions, and the Wildcats will do everything in their power to do that against Kansas as well. Kansas prefers a faster tempo, ranking 61st per KenPom, so Villanova will look to make this another half-court grinder.
The main way they will look to do this is by continuing their excellent defensive play in transition. Per Synergy, Villanova ranks in the 94th percentile in transition defense. This is key against Kansas because the Jayhawks are excellent in transition offense, ranking in the 87th percentile. If Villanova can shut down the Kansas transition attack, the possession count should be low and give the under a good chance to cash. The reasoning for the first half under versus the full-game under is to avoid any late-game fouling that could occur. This is particularly important in Villanova games, as the Wildcats lead the country in free-throw percentage and are also on pace to break the record for team free-throw percentage in a single season.
North Carolina vs Duke over 151
North Carolina vs Duke should be played at a much faster tempo than the Villanova-Kansas game. These teams met roughly a month ago and we saw a final score of 94-81 in favor of North Carolina. Seeing that many points is encouraging, but the game having 75 possessions is an even bigger takeaway. We can’t accurately predict how teams will shoot in a single game, but we can predict the pace. KenPom projects this game to play to 70 possessions, so it is likely we get a possession count a bit higher based on the previous meeting.
From a matchup perspective, North Carolina should be able to exploit Duke’s vulnerable transition defense. Per Synergy, North Carolina ranks in the 89th percentile in transition offense, while Duke’s transition defense ranks in just the 32nd percentile. Duke’s offense should be able to score efficiently as well. In fact, Duke now sits 1st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Even in the loss to North Carolina, the Blue Devils put up 1.08 points per possession. With the pace being presumably fast and both offenses having edges, the over is a good bet.
Read Jim Root’s best bets for the Final Four games
Eric Dixon over 8.5 points
Villanova lost Justin Moore to a torn Achilles’ tendon in their Elite Eight win against Houston. Moore is the team’s second-leading scorer, which means other Wildcats will need to fill the scoring void. In this matchup, it could be Eric Dixon. There is precedent for Dixon to step up in Moore’s absence, as Dixon scored 24 points in the only game that Moore missed in the regular season. It’s unlikely he’ll reach that mark again, but the bet doesn’t need him to score that many.
This matchup is a particularly good one for Villanova’s center, as his ability to play on the perimeter could be a challenge for Kansas’s David McCormack. Dixon has shown the ability to shoot from beyond the arc, so his ability to space the floor could be a big matchup edge. Villanova’s offense is based heavily in pick-and-roll and Dixon is often the beneficiary of being the roll-man in those sets. Kansas is excellent in defending the ball-handler in pick-and-roll plays, ranking in the 91st percentile, but ranks in just the 37th percentile against the roll-man. Dixon should get a few open 3-point attempts off pick-and-pop plays, so if he can continue to knock them down at a high rate, he could easily reach double figures in scoring.
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