Sam Avellone
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North Carolina Tar Heels stats breakdown
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rank: 18th
Points per game: 78.1
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rank: 39th
Opposing points per game: 71.1
North Carolina Tar Heels strengths during March Madness
Coming off an 18-11 season and head coach Roy Williams’ retirement, there were mixed expectations for the Tar Heels this year. New head coach Hubert Davis inherited a young roster that was prone to turnovers, and there were some growing pains early in the season — especially for a first-time head coach. However, following their loss to Pittsburgh on February 16, the Tar Heels regrouped and won their final 5 regular season games.
The Tar Heels have been impressive defensively in their postseason run. In four NCAA Tournament games, North Carolina has allowed just 66 points per game — including an overtime thriller against Baylor in which it yielded 86 points. Per Synergy, the Tar Heels rank in the 85th percentile defensively among the teams in the NCAA Tournament, holding their opponents to 0.782 points per possession and 35.7% shooting from the field. The North Carolina defense has been especially good late in the shot clock during its run, holding opponents to 0.421 points per possession and 17.6% shooting from the field with under 4 seconds on the shot clock.
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North Carolina Tar Heels weaknesses during March Madness
North Carolina has an elite offense that continues to score at a high rate, but production in the half court dropped slightly during its path to the Final Four. Per Synergy, the Tar Heels ranked in the 87th percentile in their half-court offense during the regular season, shooting better than 45% from the field in those offensive sets. During the Big Dance, however, the Tar Heels are shooting just 39.9% from the field in the half court. Some of the half court struggles can be attributed to poor pick-and-roll execution. Coming off a pick, the North Carolina guards have shot worse than 25% from the field and have turned the ball over on 18% of possessions. Elite transition offense and great defense has masked the inconsistency in the half court, but those shots will need to fall if the Tar Heels want to beat quality defensive opponents such as the 3 remaining teams in the tournament.
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What does North Carolina need to do to win the NCAA Tournament?
North Carolina has a young roster with a first-year head coach that is peaking at the right time. Over their last five games, the Tar Heels have held opponents to an impressive 67.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field while scoring more than 77 points per contest. In order to claim the national title, the Tar Heels will have to keep producing at that elite level defensively while taking better care of the ball in their half-court offense. They face a tough test in Final Four, as they match up with a red-hot Duke offense seeking revenge for a blowout loss in Coach K’s final home game — but the Tar Heels will likely be ready for the challenge on the sport’s biggest stage.
Read our breakdown of the March Madness futures situation as the NCAA Tournament reaches the Final Four
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