Matt Marquart
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Duke Blue Devils stats breakdown
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rank: 1st
Points per game: 80.1
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rank: 45th
Opposing points per game: 67.4
Duke Blue Devils strengths during March Madness
Quite simply, offense is the Blue Devils’ strength. As noted above, Duke has vaulted to the #1 team in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. During the tournament run, which includes two KenPom top 12 defenses, Duke has scored at least 1.11 points per possession in each game. In three of the four games the Devils had five players in double-figures in scoring, as well. The one exception was their Elite Eight win over Arkansas, in which their fifth and sixth-leading scorer finish with nine points each. Paolo Banchero leads the way, but the Blue Devils are an extremely balanced team from a scoring perspective.
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Duke Blue Devils weaknesses during March Madness
If Duke is going to lose, it’s likely to be because of the defense. The Devils haven’t been terrible on that end of the court during the NCAA Tournament, but there are some signs of concern. They have yet to face a team ranked inside the top 30 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and they surrendered 1.15 points per possession to the best offense they have faced — Michigan State in the second round. The three other teams in the Final Four have offensive efficiency ranks of 18th, seventh, and ninth. North Carolina is the team ranked 18th, and they torched Duke’s defense for 94 points in the regular season finale. Per BartTorvik, the Tar Heels rank fourth in offensive efficiency since the start of the NCAA Tournament. One of the things that helped Duke defeat Texas Tech was the fact that Coach K switched to a zone defense in the second half. This stymied the Texas Tech offense and allowed Duke to come from behind to win. However, North Carolina ranks in the 78th percentile against zone defenses this year — so that is unlikely to work against the Tar Heels.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils
What does Duke need to do to win the NCAA Tournament?
It may sound simplistic, but Duke will need to play “good enough” defense for two games to win the National Championship. The Blue Devils have the best offense of the four remaining teams by a significant margin, but they also have the worst defensive metrics, particularly when filtered by NCAA Tournament games. Per BartTorvik, Duke ranks 30th in defensive efficiency among NCAA Tournament teams that played at least two games. By comparison, the other three teams left rank fourth, fifth, and sixth. Duke doesn’t need to be the best defensive team given the potency of their offense, but their defense cannot be a liability.
FanDuel has Duke as the favorite to cut down the nets at +160 and for good reason, as the Blue Devils have been extremely impressive. If they can get enough stops to allow for their elite offense to be the difference in the games, we could see Coach K going out with a sixth National Championship.
Read our breakdown of the March Madness futures situation as the NCAA Tournament reaches the Final Four
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