Sam Avellone
While chalk prevailed this year during March Madness, the 2025 Final Four sets up to potentially be one of the best we’ve ever seen. All 4 teams are among the 10 best in KenPom’s database, dating back nearly 30 years. It’s possible this year’s champion is one of, if not the strongest team in recent history. In other words, Saturday’s semifinal games in San Antonio should be absolutely fantastic from a viewing perspective. As far as bets go, I have you covered. Here are my favorite picks for Saturday’s Final Four.
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March Madness 2025 Final Four best bets
Florida Gators ML over Auburn Tigers (-148)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Some consider Florida lucky to be here. It’s a valid argument, as the Gators were on the ropes against UConn and Texas Tech. However, there’s something to be said about Florida’s clutch shot-making and resiliency. The Gators haven’t played anywhere close to their ceiling for a full game in this tournament, yet they’re still in the Final Four.
It’s difficult to project how effective Auburn’s Johni Broome is going to be in this game given his apparent injuries against Michigan State. Broome said this week that he will have no limitations, but I’m skeptical as to whether that’s true or just gamesmanship. In any case, I like the way the Gators match-up with the Tigers. Florida has a deep front court consisting of multiple above-average defenders that excel at blocking shots and cleaning up on the boards. Look for Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlongten to rotate time on Broome, contesting all of his paint touches and limiting his offensive rebounds. There’s plenty of fouls to go around in Florida’s front court, so look for the Gators to be physical and aggressive against Broome.
If Broome isn’t his normal self, there’s going to be added pressure on Auburn’s back court to either keep up with the scoring of Florida’s guards or shut-down Walter Clayton – the latter of which has proven to be a difficult task in March. Clayton can affect the game in multiple ways, but his ability to put this team on his back is his show-stopping characteristic that has been most prevalent in Florida’s run to this point. Alongside Clayton will be Aljiah Martin, who is an incredibly valuable asset to this team being its only member with Final Four experience. Martin is smart with the ball, a willing rebounder and can get hot from the perimeter at any point.
Another thing the Gators have going for them is head coach Todd Golden’s familiarity with Bruce Pearl’s scheme. Golden spent time working for Pearl, so I’d argue he is as qualified as any coach to exploit Auburn’s weaknesses. He already did it once earlier this season when the Gators beat the Tigers in Auburn without the services of Martin and Handlongten. For what it’s worth, the Tigers posted their 2nd-worst defensive performance of the season that game.
Lines are razor-sharp this time of year, so I much prefer paying a little bit extra on the money line in a game that is projected to be decided by one-possession rather than leaving myself prone to a “meaningless” 3 at the end of the game to ruin a potential cover. Give me Florida to win this one outright.
Read our full Auburn vs Florida prediction for this Final Four matchup, including picks on side and total
Houston Cougars +3 first half over Duke Blue Devils (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Duke and Houston are the 2 best first half teams in the country. The Blue Devils and the Cougars carry a +10.9 and a +10.7 first half scoring margin, respectively, and are the only 2 teams in the country better than +9.5 in that department. That alone makes this number pop off the page at me (meaning the points with the Cougars appear of value in the first half). However, when looking at the on-court matchups, I believe Houston brings a certain toughness and physicality on the defensive end that Duke has not seen much of this season. The Cougars are the most efficient defense in the country per KenPom’s metrics, and the only other top 10 defense Duke played was Auburn way back in early December. That game was at Cameron Indoor immediately following Auburn’s trip to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational – which the Tigers won.
I have nothing but good things to say about Duke head coach Jon Scheyer, but he has yet to be on this stage as a coach – whereas Kelvin Sampson is in the midst of his 2nd Final Four appearance since 2021. Despite Scheyer’s resounding success and seemingly limitless ceiling as Duke’s coach, I favor Sampson from a preparation standpoint in this particular matchup. Not to mention the fact that Houston likely has revenge on its mind coming into this game, as Duke knocked the #1 seed Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament last year by a score of 54-51. Joseph Tugler missed that game with an injury, while Jamal Shead, Houston’s 2nd-leading scorer last year, was knocked out of the game with an injury after just 13 minutes of playing time. This time around, Houston is at full-strength. Moreover, with a top-10 mark in minutes continuity, a vast majority of Houston’s key pieces are back from last season.
From a full-game perspective, Duke has exceptional size on the perimeter and is versatile enough in the front court to find easy buckets via off-ball action when the Cougars decide to commit to their patented perimeter trap defense. However, I believe it will take time for Duke to adjust to Houston’s physicality. Look for the Cougars to make their presence felt early and go into halftime with a 1-possession deficit at worst.
Find our full Duke vs Houston prediction, including a 3-star best bet
