Matt Marquart
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With just two Elite Eight games on Saturday, there are obviously limited sides and totals to choose from. However, the player prop market is full of options to look for value.
Three props worth considering are broken down below. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure to also keep an eye on our March Madness hub for all of our content to get you primed.
#5 Houston vs #2 Villanova – Collin Gillespie Under 14.5 points (-111)
Gillespie is averaging 15.9 points per game this season, but Under 14.5 points in this matchup is worth considering. The most obvious aspect of this bet is simply the health of Gillespie, as his knee was twisted awkwardly in Thursday’s win over Michigan. The bet would void if Gillespie were ruled out, but I expect him to play given the stakes of the game and initial reports at the time of writing. If Gillespie does play, he obviously could be limited. Houston’s defense is scary enough when healthy, but any sort of limitation could be even more detrimental.
From a matchup perspective, Houston ranks 2nd in points per possession allowed in pick-and-roll according to Synergy — which is where Villanova has thrived thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State ranked in the 19th percentile in pick-and-roll defense and Michigan ranked in the 33rd percentile. Gillespie and the rest of the Villanova offense could struggle a bit more than they have so far.
Lastly, the tempo of this game should be extremely slow. Both squads rank outside the top 320 in KenPom average offensive possession length, which is why the game is projected for just 60 possessions. This means we could see lower point totals across the board in this matchup.
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#4 Arkansas vs #2 Duke – JD Notae Over 18.5 points (-104)
Notae is averaging exactly 18.5 points per game this season and has scored 56 points in the NCAA Tournament, so this line makes perfect sense. However, looking at Notae’s 3 tournament games makes the over worth a look. Notae is just 19/63 (30.2 percent) from the field in those games, which gives some hope that his point total will cash in this game. The most important factor that I consider when evaluating player props is opportunity. Single-game shooting percentages are nearly impossible to predict, but shooting volume is much easier to gauge. As seen in the first 3 NCAA Tournament games, Notae has a green light to shoot basically whenever he would like. I would agree with Bill Raftery that a lot of Notae’s shots in the Gonzaga game were very ill-advised, but at least we can reasonably assume he will continue to get a high volume of shots.
In fact, Notae has been getting high shot volume all season. Per KenPom, he ranks 18th nationally in his team’s shot percentage. Given that Arkansas plays at the 28th-fastest tempo in the country, 33 percent of Arkansas’s total shots is a massive number. Only Liberty’s Darius McGhee took more shots than Notae’s 575 this season. We know that Notae is going to keep firing, and if he can shoot closer to his average field-goal percentage the over will have a great chance to cash.
Be sure to check out our free picks on the side and total for every tournament game!
Paulo Banchero Over 7.5 rebounds (+118)
Banchero has grabbed at least 8 rebounds in 18 of 37 games this season, which is 48.6 percent of the time. FanDuel is giving us this line at +118 odds, which is a 45.9 implied probability, so there is some value at this price. Based on the schematic matchup, I expect Banchero to make it 19 of 38 games. To start, we could see a faster-paced affair, which would likely lead to higher raw point, rebound, assist, etc. totals. Arkansas ranks 28th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and KenPom’s projection of 70 possessions is 3 possessions higher than any of Duke’s 3 previous NCAA Tournament games.
From a matchup perspective, the Arkansas offense struggles with outside shooting — evidenced by its rank of 316th in 3-point percentage. Arkansas just missed 16 treys in its win over Gonzaga and it is likely we will see something similar in this game. There could be plenty of available rebounds for Duke and we would obviously need Banchero to grab his share.
The reason I believe it could be Banchero to grab a lot of these as opposed to Mark Williams — Duke’s leader in defensive rebounding rate — is because of the game-plan I expect to see from the Arkansas offense. As mentioned above, the Hogs struggle with 3-point shooting. To their credit, they realize this and try to attack the basket instead. The matchup with Gonzaga seemed difficult for their rim attack because of Chet Holmgren’s presence, but they counteracted this by bringing center Jaylin Williams out to the perimeter. Williams shot 5 triples and had a few assists by playing on the perimeter, and in turn it neutralized Gonzaga’s shot-blocking presence. I expect to see a similar approach, as Duke’s Mark Williams is also an excellent shot-blocker. If Arkansas attempts to draw Williams away from the rim, more rebounds could be available for Banchero.
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