Sam Avellone
March Madness is winding down, but the remaining games in the NCAA Tournament should be absolutely electric. Sunday’s Elite 8 matchups are just that, elite. All 4 teams in play are top 7 in the country per KenPom’s metrics, which should make for incredible basketball. Additionally, all 4 programs are led by prominent NCAA basketball head coaches. Will Rick Barnes get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2003, or will Kelvin Sampson lead Houston back to the national semifinals for the 2nd time in 5 years? That’s just the appetizer, as a heavyweight bout between Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo is the main course.
Here are my best bets for Sunday’s Elite 8 action, and be sure to check out the rest of our March Madness picks on EVERY remaining NCAA Tournament game.
Elite 8 Sunday best bets
Houston vs Tennessee first half under 58 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
On paper, Houston vs Tennessee appears evenly-matched. Both teams are top 20 in offensive efficiency, top 3 in defensive efficiency and littered with juniors and seniors. Moreover, the Cougars and the Volunteers play at a similarly slow pace, both in the bottom 20 nationally in adjusted tempo. On the defensive end, these teams really make their opponents work. Houston and Tennessee force their opponents into extended, uncomfortable possessions that often end in long, contested shots. Neither team allows much downhill action toward the rim, either. In fact, both teams are in the 85th percentile or better in shots allowed at the rim (CBB Analytics).
With so much on the line on Sunday between 2 teams that play so deliberately and excel defensively, I expect this game to get off to a slow start. Houston and Tennessee are 2 of the 12 best first half defenses in the country, which is exactly why I like the first half Under in this regional final. For reference, the Cougars allow just 26.2 first half points per game, while the Vols allow an average of 29.5 – ranking 1st and 11th, respectively. Expect the defenses to lead the charge early in this game. Playable to 57.
Auburn Tigers -4.5 over Michigan State Spartans (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Two games in a row now, the Michigan State Spartans have needed second-half surges to advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament. That has been their modus operandi all season, but that’s a risky game to play against this Auburn team. What I worry most about Michigan State in this matchup is its inconsistency from the perimeter. The Spartans connected on just 6 3-point shots against Ole Miss, which is simply not going to be enough against an Auburn team that will have at least 3 37%+ 3-point shooters on the floor at any given time. While Michigan State boasts one of the best opposing 3-point percentages in the country (28%), the Spartans have been a bit fortunate in that regard. They allow opponents to shoot 3s on more than 40% of possessions – which is outside the top 240.
I realize Auburn was cold for most of its game against Michigan, but the Tigers found something late, and I expect them to ride that momentum into the Elite 8 – especially in front of such a pro-Auburn crowd being less than 2 hours from campus. Furthermore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pearl try to establish Broome early in this game. While Michigan State’s defense is very good, the Spartans rank around the national average in post-up defense efficiency (Hoop-Explorer), which is exactly where Broome is most effective. He is also one of the better passing big men in the country, and will be able to easily find shooters on the perimeter if the Spartans sag down to help on him in the post.
Lacking a consistent offensive threat on the perimeter, don’t be surprised to see Sparty go on multiple scoring droughts against the Tigers. Give me Auburn to win and cover, punching its ticket to the Final 4 in San Antonio for the first time since 2019. Playable to -5.5.
