Caleb Wilfinger
While this year’s NCAA tournament has largely gone the way of the favorites, that has set us up for some tremendous matchups on Saturday. The Elite 8 is here and Saturday’s March Madness action starts off with a West Region matchup between Texas Tech and Florida, before Alabama and Duke close out the evening in the East Region.
In anticipation of the Elite 8, here is my March Madness best bet for Saturday’s two-game slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
March Madness best bet: Florida Gators -6.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)
For our March Madness best bet on Saturday’s slate, we’re looking at Texas Tech vs Florida in the West Regional Final. Florida is the top seed in the region, and the Gators certainly looked like it on Thursday, as they comfortably rolled past a Maryland team that was a top 10 team per KenPom heading into that contest. Conversely, Texas Tech is extremely fortunate to even be playing in this game, as the Red Raiders rallied from a 15-point second half deficit to force overtime in the waning seconds against Arkansas, before ultimately going on to win the game on a bucket with 7 seconds left in overtime. While I was pretty bullish on Texas Tech’s chance to make it to the Final Four heading into this tournament, this isn’t a great matchup for a Red Raiders group that is also in a pretty unfortunate situational spot on Saturday.
Texas Tech is having to play against a deep and talented Florida team on a very short turnaround, with the game tipping off approximately 40 hours after the conclusion of their overtime thriller. The Gators are not a team you want to play on this short of a turnaround, especially since they were able to stagger the minutes of their frontcourt fairly well on Thursday. That is especially important against a Texas Tech team that plays through their frontcourt duo of Darrion Williams and J.T. Toppin. With Florida having four quality bigs to throw at Williams and Toppin, there’s a real chance that the cumulative wear and tear of playing 35+ minutes against this frontcourt takes its toll on the top scoring options for Texas Tech. In a game of this magnitude, I trust that Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and company should be able to hold their own on the defensive side, in addition to creating mismatches with their passing and cutting ability on the offensive end.
I’ve written about this Florida team at length this season, but one thing that continues to impress me is how the Gators can beat you in a number of different ways. It all starts in the backcourt, as the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a massive edge for Todd Golden’s team, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Florida was able to spread out Texas Tech on the perimeter and generate good looks from beyond the arc. The Gators should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since Texas Tech is not a team that creates a ton of havoc or forces live-ball turnovers on defense (175th nationally in turnovers forced). While I’ve loved this Texas Tech team all season long, I can only look at Florida in this matchup.
Read our full Texas Tech vs Florida prediction
