Caleb Wilfinger
Following an eventful first 2 weeks of the NCAA Tournament, we are down from 64 to just 4 teams. That’s right, all roads have led to the Final Four. All of the #1 seeds have made the Final Four for the first time since 2008, a tournament that produced one of the greatest National Championship games in the history of the sport. However, before we can get to the title game, there are a pair of Final Four games to take place, including the Duke Blue Devils taking on the Houston Cougars on Saturday night in San Antonio, Texas. Let’s get into our Duke vs Houston Same Game Parlay picks for this Final Four matchup, which tips off at 8:49 pm ET.
You can also find out our March Madness picks for EVERY game in the NCAA Tournament.
Houston +5.5 (-110)
Under 137 (-110)
Cooper Flagg under 19.5 points (-135)
Duke vs Houston Same Game Parlay odds: +532
Get the best odds on our Duke vs Houston Same Game Parlay picks with BetMGM, where it’s never been a better time to join! Simply click here to sign up now and you’ll receive $150 in bonus bets IMMEDIATELY if your first $10 wager is a winner!
Houston Cougars +5.5 (-110)
This game presents us with a fascinating clash of styles, and the winner will likely be the team that is able to impose its will on the game stylistically. Duke is elite in all areas, but the Blue Devils’ strengths on defense — defending in transition and at the rim — don’t align with what Houston wants to do offensively, which could be an edge for the Cougars here. Houston loves midrange jumpers, and the Cougar bigs do a stellar job of crashing the offensive glass and kicking the ball out for open threes. When they do get those attempts from deep, the Cougars shoot the ball at a very high percentage (39.7% as a team, good for 2nd in the nation). We just saw the likes of Emmanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan make jumpers against a tremendous Tennessee defense, so that formula is certainly replicable against a Duke team that is more than happy to let a team beat it with jumpers.
On the other side of the ball, Houston is probably the toughest opponent for a team like Duke to deal with, especially since Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils are going to be seeing this type of aggressive, physical, swarming team defense for the first time all season. The Cougars have the innate ability to shape any contest into the ideal game they want to play, and given that they are playing as well as any team remaining in this tournament, it’s hard to ignore taking the points with the top rated defense in the country. Houston’s veteran know-how, physicality and dominance on the glass should end up being the difference against a Duke team that while excellent, is certainly not invincible against an opponent of this caliber. All things considered, I have to take the points in a game that should come down to the wire
Check out our full Duke vs Houston prediction
Under 137 (-110)
From a game script perspective, the under correlates nicely with Houston covering the spread, or even winning outright in this contest. The Final Four is being played in Alamodome, which is not a venue that should be conducive to plenty of scoring. As we have seen in previous NCAA Tournament games played in these massive non-basketball dome stadiums, the sight lines aren’t necessarily ideal for shooters and teams generally tend to start off a bit slow in a game of this magnitude. The path to an over only gets more difficult once we factor in both defenses in this game, as we have 2 of the best 5 defenses in the nation according to the likes of BartTorvik, KenPom, EvanMiya and others.
While Duke has shown that it has the capability to play in the open court, both of these teams are more than content to slow the game down to a halfcourt battle, one where executing last in the shot clock becomes paramount. With both defenses flying around and playing at an extremely high level, I wouldn’t expect either offense to have much success scoring early in the shot clock, especially once the second half rolls around and each possession becomes critical. At the end of the day, I’ll trust both defenses and take the under.
Find our expert’s best bets for Saturday’s Final Four matchups
Cooper Flagg under 19.5 points (-135)
For the final leg of this SGP, let’s take a bit of a riskier prop and target Cooper Flagg to go under his point total. No other player has as much buzz surrounding him as Flagg heading into the Final Four, and for good reason. After all, the freshman phenom has been the best player in the nation all season long and appears to be the consensus top pick in this summer’s upcoming NBA Draft. However, given that he’ll certainly be the main focus of this elite Houston defense in this matchup, Flagg likely figures to be more of a facilitator, instead of needing to score at a high volume to lead his team to a victory. Not only will Flagg step into more of a facilitator role, he has also gone under this point total in 13 of his last 16 games played. I just don’t see that trend slowing down against Houston on Saturday, regardless of which team wins the game.
