Sam Avellone
The madness is always welcomed in March. What an absolutely incredible pair of games on Saturday! The Final Four lived up to the hype and then some. Turning the page to the National Championship, Florida and Houston should provide all the drama and fireworks that we saw in the Final Four. An electric Gator offense that is first nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency in March going against a suffocating Cougar defense that is second nationally in efficiency in March (Barttorvik)…what more could you ask for in a title game?
Here are my best bets for Monday’s March Madness championship game; thank you for reading along all season!
March Madness Championship Game best bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Florida Gators ML over Houston Cougars (-115)
I have been on the Gator-train since their win over Arizona State in December and I’m not jumping off now. The Gators have proven their ability to win games at any pace and style, and they are led by a game-stopper and ultimate equalizer in Walter Clayton Jr. – who has flashed periods of brilliance a la Steph Curry and Kemba Walker in this NCAA Tournament.Â
On paper, Florida profiles as the type of team that can spread Houston’s defense out and make the Cougars pay for sending 2 to the ball. Outside of Clayton, Alijah Martin, Will Richard and Thomas Haugh are all around 35% from the perimeter, and each one of them has stepped up at different times with big shots to get Florida to this point. In fact, Haugh should be a key piece to Florida’s success in this matchup with his ability to play on the perimeter as the 4 in Florida’s lineup.Â
Houston is an extremely physical team, but I don’t think the Gators are going to balk at the Cougars aggression. The Gators have plenty of size and depth in the front court to contest shots and frustrate Houston in the mid-range, much like Duke did. For reference, Houston was 13/39 on 2-point attempts in the Final Four. However, the key difference between Florida and Duke is the way they handle high-pressure situations late in games. Duke showed a pattern of folding in close games this year, while Florida has excelled in those clutch situations time and time again thanks to Clayton. This figures to be another highly-contested game that could go either way late, but I’m sticking with the Gators to be crowned champions on Monday night.
Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars Over 140.5 (-115)
The total for this title game opened at 142 and predictably ticked down 1-1.5 points. It makes sense, as Unders are typically a good bet in championship games. Not to mention, Houston famously has a ferocious defense in tandem with a very deliberate pace of play that ranks 360th out of 364 Division 1 teams in adjusted tempo (KenPom). However, I’m expecting ample 3-point attempts for both teams in this game, as Houston knocks down 39.9% of its perimeter attempts as a team via 3 microwave scorers in LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp – all of whom can heat up at any moment. Florida is not far behind Houston in the season-long 3-point% metrics at 35.8%, but the Gators have been a bit more consistent from range in the postseason – knocking down nearly 38% of their attempts in March. Whether they go in or not, the Gators are going to keep shooting. Nearly 45% of their attempts in March have come from beyond the 3-point line.
Houston is going to do everything it can to take Florida out of transition, but these offenses should be efficient enough to surpass this number in a 65-66 possession game. Expecting a bit of physicality in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an abundance of free throws in addition to the aforementioned 3-point attempts. The Gators love to draw contact and get to the free throw line, while the Cougars’ aggression can often lead to fouls – as shown by their 214th-rated free throw rate allowed.
This total opening north of 140 is a strong sign oddsmakers expect this game to be played into the 70s, and I agree. For what it’s worth, Overs are 3-1 in Houston’s games with a total of at least 140. Meanwhile, every postseason game for Florida has gone over the total except its Final Four win over Auburn. The Gators were on an 11-game Over run prior to Saturday’s win. I like both teams to crack 70, so give me the Over.
