Sam Avellone
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The college basketball season reaches its pinnacle on Monday night when the top 2 teams in the country aptly face-off in the March Madness National Championship game. As a borderline blue blood program and one of the most consistent in the last decade, UConn has once again proven its dominance in its run to its 2nd consecutive title game. The Huskies beat everyone in their path to this point by at least 14 points, and now just 1 more test stands in their way of being the first team since the 2006-2007 Florida Gators to win back-to-back titles. Unfortunately for UConn, its final opponent is anchored by 7’4” Zach Edey – two-time National Player of the Year.
Bettors are analyzing every aspect of this game to make informed wagers. Among the myriad of options, there is one bet I believe is particularly attractive: the under. Here’s why.
Read our full Purdue Boilermakers vs UConn Huskies National Championship predictions
March Madness Championship Game Best Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Purdue Boilermakers vs UConn Huskies under 146.5 (-115)
Both UConn and Purdue boast formidable defenses, ranking in the top 12 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Going one step further, the Huskies and the Boilermakers have limited their postseason opponents to below a 46% eFG% according to BartTorvik. These strong defensive grades reflect Purdue and UConn’s ability to stifle opponents’ scoring consistently. It makes sense, as these defenses are anchored by elite rim protectors in Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey – both of whom average more than 2 blocks per game with a block rate of at least 7%. Their presence makes it extremely difficult for opponents to get any easy shots at the rim. According to Synergy, Purdue yields the 7th-lowest rim rate in the country, while UConn allows the 4th-fewest points per shot at the rim. Furthermore, these teams excel at limiting second chance opportunities, which is great for under bettors.
Offensively, UConn and Purdue prefer a deliberate, slow-paced style of play that centers around their big man touching the ball on a vast majority of possessions and their perimeter players running a wide array of off-ball action. Subsequently, both teams are outside the top 210 in adjusted tempo and average possession length in KenPom’s season-long metrics. In the postseason, the Huskies and the Boilermakers are averaging around 65.5 possessions per game, and neither has relied heavily on perimeter shots. In fact, both UConn and Purdue have lower 3-point rates and percentages in the postseason than they did during the regular season.
Despite UConn’s electric offensive performances throughout the postseason, not a single one of its NCAA tournament games have gone over the total. Meanwhile, Purdue is 4-1 to the under in the NCAA Tournament, with 3 of those 4 unders coming by a double-digit margin. The convergence of strong defenses, deliberate offensive styles, and recent under trends make betting the under in the National Championship game an enticing proposition. With both teams likely to prioritize getting stops and controlling the ball, bettors can expect a tightly contested game with fewer points than the total suggests. For what it’s worth, 6 of the last 9 title games stayed under this number – including both of the games UConn won in that span.
Check out our Purdue vs UConn National Championship Same Game Parlay at +937 odds
