Sam Avellone
March Madness is back, which means so is the return of my annual 68-team bracket guide. Inside you will find NCAA Tournament betting trends, key championship characteristics, and a quick analysis of every team in the tournament field.
This guide acts as a true one-stop shop for your bracket contests and betting needs, but we at Pickswise will have you covered throughout the week with more content including our favorite picks for the National Championship, Final Four and Sweet 16 – as well as our favorite Cinderella picks. Not to mention our college basketball predictions for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament. There’s a lot of information to share here, so let’s get started.
March Madness bracket trends
1. Last year’s title game between Purdue and UConn was just the 10th #1 vs #1 matchup since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64+ teams in 1985.
2. #1 seeds are 154-2 SU against #16 seeds since tournament expansion. Moreover, #1 seeds have won at least 2 NCAA Tournament games over 85% of the time in the last 40 years. All 4 of the top seeds won at least 2 games last year, which was a return to the norm after multiple #1s lost before the Sweet 16 in 2023 for just the 4th time since 1985.
3. After a clean sweep in 2024, #2 seeds are 145-11 SU against #15 seeds since 1985. The 4-0 result snapped a 3-year streak in which a #15 upset a #2.
4. The 2024 NCAA Tournament had a #1 vs #2 matchup in the Elite 8 (Purdue vs Tennessee). It was the first time since 2019 that a #1 played a #2 in that round.
5. Oakland’s 2024 upset of Kentucky was just the 2nd time a #14 beat a #3 since 2021 and the 3rd time since 2016. #3 seeds are 133-23 in the first round since 1985, and at least 1 #3 has made it to the Elite 8 in 6 of the last 7 NCAA Tournaments.
6. #4 seeds have won nearly 79% of their first-round games since 1985, but a #13 has upset a #4 in 2 consecutive years and 5 of the last 6 NCAA Tournaments. 4 of the last 5 #4 seeds to lose in this matchup were 330th or worse nationally in tempo.
7. #5 seeds were on a 9-3 run over #12 seeds entering the 2024 NCAA Tournament, but 2 of them lost their first-round matchups (Duke, Saint Mary’s). When targeting an upset in this matchup, make sure the #12 seed is in the top 50 in scoring margin. All but 2 #12 seeds that have sprung a first-round upset in the last 20 years have been in that range.
8. #11 seeds have made some noise over the last 4 years. They were 3-1 SU against #6 seeds last year, which was the 3rd time in the last 4 years that multiple #11 seeds have won in the first round. #6 seeds are 95-61 against #11 seeds since 1985, but just 7-9 since 2021. NC State made its Cinderella run to the Final Four as an #11 last year, and was the 6th #11 to make it that far since 1985. #11 seeds may be popular upset picks in 2025. Plan accordingly.
9. #7 seeds went 3-1 last year against #10 seeds and are now 9-3 in this matchup in the last 3 years. Since 1985, #7 seeds are 95-60 in this first-round matchup.
10. #9 seeds continue to dominate the #8 vs #9 matchup, as they went 3-1 last year and are now 81-75 against #8 seeds in the first round despite being the higher seed. It was the 2nd time in 3 years that 3 #9s won their first-round matchup.
11. UConn’s title was the 26th for a #1 seed in the last 39 NCAA Tournaments. #2 and #3 seeds have won 9 titles combined over that span, but a #2 has not won a title since 2016. #5 is the only top-8 seed yet to win a title.
12. A West Coast team has not won the national championship since Mike Bibby, Jason Terry and the Arizona Wildcats did it in 1997.
13. Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, no team has lost its 1st conference tournament game and went on to win the national title. Texas A&M is the only team this applies to out of the 16 teams with odds 50/1 or shorter to a championship.
14. Be conscious of the spreads when filling out your bracket. If a higher seed is listed as a favorite over a lower seed (example #11 favored over #6), it is usually a strong indicator that an “upset” could occur in that matchup.
Find out our expert’s March Madness winner predictions, which includes a longshot pick at +6000 odds!
March Madness team traits to note
Predicting the winner of a 68-team tournament is challenging, but there are various characteristics that most national champions possess. Those characteristics are listed below. Make sure most of your Elite 8 teams possess a majority, if not all of them.
1. KenPom top 25 – Since KenPom’s inception in 2002, every national champion save 1 has finished the season ranked in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Note, teams currently outside this threshold can play their way into the top 25 with a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
2. Experience – Having a surplus of Division 1 experience is becoming increasingly more important in today’s age of college basketball, ruled by NIL and the transfer portal. Look for teams in the top 30 range of Division 1 experience, especially if they have junior or senior guards who have played in the NCAA Tournament previously. Being led by an experienced head coach with a deep March run under his belt doesn’t hurt, either.
3. Reliable three-point shooting – Ever since Steph Curry fueled Davidson’s magical Elite 8 run in 2008, the three-point shot has become an integral part of college basketball. Teams that can spread the floor with multiple shooters often are able to apply a great deal of pressure to even the best defenses in the country in a single-elimination matchup.
4. Reliable free-throw shooting – I don’t recommend laying big numbers with favorites that struggle from the free-throw line. In a similar sense, I don’t recommend picking teams to advance far in your bracket if they shoot 70% or worse from the charity stripe. St. John’s comes to mind when trying to think of a team that may be held back by poor free-throw shooting.
5. A game-changing big man – Many of the top teams have a post presence that can either protect the rim at an elite level, score at an elite level, or do both. Having someone who can control the paint like Zach Edey, Donovan Clingan or David McCormack is a big advantage, especially if he is surrounded by shooters.
6. Offensive rebounding advantages – It goes with the previous key trait, but creating second-chance opportunities while simultaneously limiting opposing ones could end up being the difference-maker in a close game.
7. Health – Don’t expect teams affected by injuries to key rotational players to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament. The college basketball season is a long one, and oftentimes teams with the most attrition are the ones that make it to the second weekend and beyond. Unfortunately, Iowa State comes to mind in this instance.
8. Seed Strength – Similar to KenPom’s efficiency metrics, Evan Miyakawa’s (EvanMiya) metrics can be predictive and will help you select a champion and find upset picks. Every year, he releases rankings on his website that identify groups of teams that are stronger or weaker than the other teams at the same seed. Underseeded teams advance almost 60% further than other teams at that seed. Among the under-seeded teams this year are Maryland, Kansas and Gonzaga. Using this methodology, VCU, Colorado State, UC San Diego and Yale are intriguing teams to consider for first-round upsets, while Memphis and Michigan are a couple of teams that profile as overseeded teams according to EvanMiya.
9. Ability to limit scoring runs – It’s difficult to overcome a deficit when your opponent excels at limiting scoring runs. Similarly, it’s hard to squander a lead when you don’t allow your opponent to go on runs. Using EvanMiya’s “kill shot” metrics, here are some tournament teams that yield 10-0 scoring runs at the lowest rates in the country: Liberty, Arizona, Alabama, Oklahoma, Lipscomb, Drake and Duke.
10. AP poll – For the last 20 years, the NCAA men’s basketball champion was in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP poll. Moreover, all but 1 champion since 2013 was in the preseason AP poll. For what it’s worth, Houston was outside the top 12 of the Week 6 AP poll (15th), while St. John’s and Michigan State were unranked in the preseason poll.
March Madness 68 team-by-team guide
South Region
#1. Auburn Tigers (28-5) – The SEC regular-season champions have the most Quad 1 wins in the field (15), and their 5 losses were all to teams who are currently in KenPom’s top 17. With a top-25 mark in Division 1 experience to go along with top-12 marks in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, the Tigers should be considered one of the favorites to cut down the nets in April – but there are concerns with their ability to defend without fouling and limit opposing offensive rebounds.
#2. Michigan State Spartans (27-6) – Another regular-season champion that fell short in their conference tournament, the Spartans are top 5 in defensive efficiency and top 30 on the offensive side, and they control the boards on both ends better than most teams in the country. However, they rely on freshmen guards and have been a bit fortunate that opponents have made fewer than 28% of their three-point attempts against them.
#3. Iowa State Cyclones (24-9) – With top-20 marks in offensive and defensive efficiency and a top-25 mark in Division 1 experience, the Cyclones profile as a title contender. However, starting senior guard and second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert will miss the NCAA tournament with an injury. Tamin Lipsey is battling injury as well, but it sounds like he will play in the opening round. This team has battled injuries all season.
#4. Texas A&M Aggies (22-10) – The Aggies are 1 of the 11 most experienced teams in the country, and they have 1 of the 7 most efficient defenses – but they are tough to watch on the offensive end despite being led by senior guard and future-pro Wade Taylor (15.7 points, 4.3 assists per game). Texas A&M is 317th in effective field-goal percentage and relies too heavily on scoring from the free-throw line, but often creates second-chance opportunities with the top offensive rebounding rate in the country.
#5. Michigan Wolverines (25-9) – The Wolverines are one of the most polarizing teams in the country, as they won the Big Ten Tournament but arguably underperformed for the final 3-4 weeks of the regular season. Turnovers are a massive issue for this team (328th in turnover rate), but they have a frontcourt duo in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin that presents matchup nightmares for most teams in the tournament. Moreover, the Wolverines have plenty of experience playing in close games, which could be an advantage against UC San Diego in the opening round – a popular upset pick.
#6. Ole Miss Rebels (22-11) – The Rebels come into the tournament with wins over BYU, Louisville, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee. Chris Beard’s squad is loaded with experience and is 1 of the 3 best teams in the country in turnover rate, but they carry the profile of an overseeded team per EvanMiya. The Rebels struggle on the boards due to a lack of interior size, and they don’t protect the perimeter efficiently enough on the defensive end to get past teams that can light it up from distance.
#7. Marquette Golden Eagles (23-10) – The Golden Eagles have had an up-and-down season consisting of multiple losing streaks, but they have star power with senior guard Kam Jones – who has scored 84 points combined in Marquette’s last 3 games. They are hovering right around #30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are top 8 in turnover rate, but their best wins are back in November and early December against Maryland, Purdue and Wisconsin. In fact, those are the only top-20 wins on their resume per KenPom.
#8. Louisville Cardinals (27-7) – What a turnaround for the Louisville program, going from 8-24 in 2024 to 27-7 this season! The ACC runners-up seem slightly underseeded, but the committee did them a favor by giving them an opening-round matchup in Lexington – just a short drive from home. Pat Kelsey’s bunch is top 5 in Division 1 experience and has one of the nation’s best trios of senior guards in Chucky Hepburn, Terrence Edwards and J’Vonne Hadley, but I worry about the Cards’ depth and shooting inconsistencies. For what it’s worth, Louisville’s 2 wins over Clemson are its only victories over a team that is currently in KenPom’s top 30.
#9. Creighton Bluejays (24-10) – The Bluejays have wins over Kansas, St. John’s, Xavier, Marquette and UConn, but 4 of those 5 wins were at home. Their results away from home are a mixed bag. Creighton’s effective field-goal percentage drops from 59.2% to 52.1% when playing away from Omaha, and the Bluejays currently rank outside the top 240 in turnover rate – but they have top-10 size and top-40 experience.
#10. New Mexico Lobos (26-7) – One of 2 Pitinos coaching in this tournament, Richard’s squad survived the battle on the bubble thanks to non-conference wins over UCLA, USC and VCU. The Lobos play at a top-5 pace in the country and are led by do-it-all guard Donovan Dent (20.6 points, 6.4 assists per game), but they make fewer than 69% of their free throws and have been a bit fortunate that their opponents have made just 66.7% against them to this point.
#11. San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) / North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) – A few years removed from a national title appearance, San Diego State still possesses a top-15 defense and has wins over Houston and Creighton on its resume. However, the Aztecs are outside the top 110 in offensive efficiency and shoot sub-70% from the free-throw line. North Carolina is fortunate to be here considering it has just 1 Quad 1 win. I guess the Tar Heels benefitted from their 7th-rated strength of schedule, but their best win was against UCLA on December 21. Their only other top-50 win was against SMU, who is not in this tournament.
#12. UC San Diego Tritons (30-4) – The Big West champions have the nation’s longest active winning streak (15 games) and are one of the most popular mid-majors in the bracket this year. The Tritons are underseeded according to many different analytical sites, but I question the true upside of this team given the fact that they played only 5 games against top 100 opponents – 3 of which were against UC Irvine. UCSD has just 1 win over a tournament team (Utah State), and there’s not much Division 1 experience on the roster. That being said, the Tritons have a strong profile – boasting a top-30 mark in defensive efficiency, albeit against the 180th-rated strength of schedule.
#13. Yale Bulldogs (22-7) – The Ivy League champions made noise last year by upsetting #4 Auburn in the first round, and will look to repeat history with another first-round matchup against an SEC team. Yale doesn’t have a strong non-conference resume, but scored 84 in an 8-point loss at Purdue early in the season and beat Akron on a neutral floor in late December – limiting both teams to 12 combined offensive rebounds. If they can replicate that success against Texas A&M, they will have a legitimate chance to secure another upset win in the NCAA Tournament. Keep an eye on senior guards Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas, they spearhead an offense that leads the country in rate of 10-0 scoring runs per game (EvanMiya).
#14. Lipscomb Bisons (25-9) – The ASUN champions are top 35 in Division 1 experience and have 3 shooters who can knock down their perimeter attempts at a 38% clip or better. However, they were largely uncompetitive against Arkansas and Kentucky earlier in the season. The Bisons’ lone win over a tournament team came against Wofford on November 9, and they rank 100th in defensive efficiency per KenPom.
#15. Bryant Bulldogs (23-11) – Bryant likes to play fast and possesses top-45 experience with top-10 size. However, like many teams seeded in this range, the Bulldogs don’t have any wins over tournament teams. In fact, they only played 2 tournament teams (St. John’s and Grand Canyon) this season, and they lost those games by 72 combined points.
#16. Alabama State Hornets (19-15) / Saint Francis Red Flash (16-17) – The SWAC-champion Alabama State Hornets have a top-5 turnover rate in the country and closed the season on a 10-1 run, but their average margin of defeat against top 100 teams was about 18 points per game. Meanwhile, the NEC-champion Saint Francis Red Flash is outside the top 290 in offensive and defensive efficiency and 349th in Division 1 experience.
All eyes on our NCAA Tournament best bets to reach the Final Four, with our expert targeting 2 top teams
East Region
#1. Duke Blue Devils (31-3) – Duke has one of the strongest profiles we have ever seen in the sport. The Blue Devils have marquee wins over Arizona, Auburn, Illinois and Louisville (twice), are top 5 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and will have the height advantage over every other team in the NCAA Tournament. However, injury concerns to Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown – Duke’s most versatile defenders – could potentially hold the Blue Devils back; as could a relatively inexperienced coach.
#2. Alabama Crimson Tide (25-8) – The Tide can beat anyone on any given night, but they rely heavily on their three-point shot to do so. They play at the fastest pace in the country, and because of that, they are at a disadvantage when their shots are not falling – as their defense leaves a bit to be desired. They are in the 9th percentile in defensive rating over their last 10 games (CBB Analytics), and their defensive efficiency – while just outside the required threshold for a title when looking at season-long metrics – dropped off dramatically in SEC play. However, they made a deep run last year with a much worse defense. Keep an eye on Grant Nelson’s injury status.
#3. Wisconsin Badgers (26-9) – The Badgers have looked as good as anyone offensively at various points this season, but they also let games slip away when their shots aren’t falling – just like they did in the Big Ten Championship. With top-45 experience and top-70 size in addition to a top-20 mark in turnover rate and the best free throw percentage in the country, Wisconsin has a high ceiling. John Tonje’s ability to score in bunches helps the Badgers’ cause as well. However, a loss to Penn State at home to end the regular season highlights a concerning floor.
#4. Arizona Wildcats (22-12) – Arizona has top-30 experience and loves to run in transition. The Wildcats are top 15 in offensive efficiency and top 35 in defensive efficiency with a top-50 strength of schedule, but betting on this team brings about a roller-coaster of emotions. Caleb Love can shoot the Wildcats out of games, or he can hit fullcourt heaves to force overtime after not hitting a single three all game.
#5. Oregon Ducks (24-9) – The Ducks have good non-conference wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama, in addition to strong conference wins over Maryland and Wisconsin. However, they are considered to be overseeded by EvanMiya despite accumulating 16 combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. Look for Nate Bittle to make a difference on both ends of the floor, though the Ducks will need consistent play from Jackson Shelstad to realize their ceiling.
#6. BYU Cougars (24-9) – BYU ended the regular season with 8 consecutive wins, which included victories over Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State. The Cougars then beat a short-handed Iowa State team in the Big 12 Tournament, but that is about the extent of their marquee wins. They are 11th in offensive efficiency and 7th in effective field-goal percentage, and will likely benefit from playing in altitude in Denver in the opening round. However, a defense that is currently 68th in efficiency and 165th in effective field goal percentage figures to hold them back.
#7. Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5) – Randy Bennett’s squad is notorious for having an elite defense and playing at one of the slowest paces in the country. This year is no different, as it is 8th in defensive efficiency while playing at the 5th-slowest tempo. The Gaels are also very good at creating second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds while limiting their opponents. The biggest area of concern for Saint Mary’s is on the offensive end, where the Gaels are 56th in efficiency and 171st in effective field goal percentage.
#8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) – Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard can heat up and go for 30 on any given night, but this team is not as strong defensively as we are accustomed to seeing from head coach Chris Jans. The Bulldogs are in the 21st percentile in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and they have not beaten a single team that currently ranks in the top 25 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency.
#9. Baylor Bears (19-14) – Baylor has had a weird year riddled with injuries and depth issues, but the Bears found a way to make the tournament thanks to non-conference wins over Arkansas and St. John’s. Outside of those wins, the Bears haven’t beaten a single top-50 team, and their only other victory over a tournament team was against Norfolk State. Still, they are led by a championship-caliber head coach, and they supplement their top-30 Division 1 experience with a future lottery pick in freshman VJ Edgecombe – who is a walking highlight.
#10. Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) – Vanderbilt’s turnaround from last year to this year is similar to those of Michigan, Louisville and Missouri. In Mark Byington’s first season in Nashville, the Commodores secured home wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Missouri, in addition to winning on the road at Texas A&M. The ‘Dores are solid offensively, but leave a bit to be desired on the defensive end – ranking outside the top 275 in opposing effective field goal percentage thanks to a poor perimeter defense.
#11. VCU Rams (28-6) – The Rams have a strength of schedule that ranks 123rd and has played only 2 tournament teams, yet they are considered underseeded by EvanMiya. It makes sense when you look at their profile. They are 23rd in KenPom’s defense efficiency (which is adjusted) thanks to the best opposing effective field-goal percentage in the country. They force turnovers on greater than 20% of opposing possessions, and they block shots at a top-10 rate. Moreover, they are loaded with Division 1 experience, including multiple power conference transfers.
#12. Liberty Flames (28-6) – The Conference USA champions play at a very deliberate pace, which works well for them under head coach Ritchie McKay. They take threes at a top-25 rate nationally, making them at a top-5 rate, and they are similarly good defensively on the perimeter. With wins over Kansas State and McNeese State, the Flames have demonstrated their upside. However, they lack size and make fewer than 66% of their free throws.
#13. Akron Zips (28-6) – Akron won the MAC for the 2nd season in a row and will return to the NCAA Tournament in very good offensive form despite a very different profile than last year’s team. This version of the Zips loves to run in transition, as shown by their top-20 tempo, and they shoot and make threes at a top-50 rate – unlike last year. Yet, they didn’t look very good early in the season against fellow tournament teams in Saint Mary’s and Yale.
#14. Montana Grizzlies (25-9) – The Big Sky champions ended the season on a 14-1 run and have top-50 experience, but they have beaten no one of note. Their best performance against a tournament team was a 95-83 loss at Utah State. Furthermore, they failed to surpass 57 points against Oregon and Tennessee.
#15. Robert Morris Colonials (26-8) – The Colonials are another mid-major champion that ended the season on a massive run, winning 16 of their last 17 games. However, like many teams in this range, they have minimal experience against tournament teams. They rank 272nd in turnover rate and outside the top 170 in offensive efficiency, which will be difficult to overcome against Alabama.
#16. American Eagles (22-12) / Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12) – Neither American nor Mount St. Mary’s are likely to cause Duke any problems. The Eagles failed to surpass 60 regulation points in 3 of their 4 games against top 150 teams, while the Mountaineers failed to surpass 60 in all 3 of theirs.
West Region
#1. Florida Gators (30-4) – The Gators have championship upside, boasting the most efficient offense in the country and a top-10 mark in offensive rebounding rate (KenPom). They pair their elite offense with a top-10 defense, and they have size and versatility in their frontcourt that very few teams can match. Moreover, the Gators have 3 senior guards, 1 of which was part of Florida Atlantic’s run to the Final Four a couple of years ago. They don’t have the non-conference pedigree that Auburn does, but they are 20-4 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
#2. St. John’s Red Storm (30-4) – Rick Pitino and the Johnnies had a historic season, as St. John’s returned to the top of the Big East for the first time in 25 years. This is the most efficient defense in the country per KenPom’s numbers, and it wreaks havoc in the passing lanes – forcing turnovers on nearly 22% of possessions. St. John’s also protects the rim at an elite rate. However, the ceiling for this team may be capped by an offense that ranks 244th in effective field-goal percentage. Their 9th-rated offensive rebounding rate can only carry them so far.
#3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (25-8) – Neither Darrion Williams nor Chance McMillan played in Texas Tech’s last game, but both are expected to be available for the NCAA Tournament. Grant McCasland’s squad is top 10 in offensive efficiency and can light it up from the perimeter with 3 different players that shoot 40% from distance on more than 130 attempts. On the other end, the Red Raiders excel at limiting perimeter attempts, but their defense at and around the rim lags behind at times. Their win at Houston in overtime highlights their upside, but losses to Saint Joseph’s, TCU and UCF highlight their floor.
#4. Maryland Terrapins (25-8) – The Terps may be on the #4 line, but EvanMiya considers them to be underseeded. It makes sense, as they are top 30 on both ends of the floor, limit turnovers and offensive rebounds and have star-power with Derik Queen. However, they lack depth, and their effective field-goal percentage drops 4.5% when playing away from home – which will likely hinder them after the first weekend of the tournament.
#5. Memphis Tigers (29-5) – The AAC champions had an incredible start to the regular season, defeating Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss, but losses to Arkansas State, Temple and Wichita State highlight how low this team’s floor can be. As such, the Tigers are considered to be overseeded, which is no surprise considering they are currently listed as an underdog despite being the better seed in their first-round matchup against Colorado State. It’s worth noting, Memphis struggled against the spread as a favorite this season, but was 6-2 SU and ATS as an underdog.
#6. Missouri Tigers (22-11) – Missouri went from winless in the SEC to a tournament team in just 1 season, which is truly an incredible accomplishment. Coach Dennis Gates hit a home run with his transfer portal class, as the Tigers have 1 of the 5 most efficient offenses in the country per KenPom. However, for as good as they are offensively, they are nowhere near that on the defensive end – and they are not very good at limiting opposing offensive rebounds, either. Thankfully, forward Mark Mitchell is expected to be available for the NCAA Tournament after picking up an injury in the SEC Tournament.
#7. Kansas Jayhawks (21-12) – It’s been an interesting year for Bill Self and the Kansas Jayhawks. They typically aren’t this low in the bracket. In fact, they have not been this low in the bracket since Roy Williams coached in Lawrence. Losses to Utah and Kansas State were head-scratching, but non-conference wins over Michigan State and Duke strengthen Kansas’s resume and highlight this team’s ceiling. Zeke Mayo is the catalyst for Kansas’ success. If he is hitting shots, the Jayhawks can be tough to beat.
#8. UConn Huskies (23-10) – The reigning national champions twice over have an uphill battle to be the first team to “three-peat” since John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins did it over 50 years ago, but hey – this is March Madness after all. Sometimes, it feels like anything can happen. The Huskies have a top-15 offense buoyed by elite marks on the offensive glass and from the free-throw line, but defense is a concern. They are 94th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, though I would argue they are not actually that bad with a healthy Liam McNeeley – who missed 8 games in the middle of the season.
#9. Oklahoma Sooners (20-13) – The Sooners earned notable non-conference wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan, but their results in the SEC were a mixed bag. They fail to rebound with any sort of consistency, and their lack of defensive intensity is worrisome – especially at the rim. However, Oklahoma can put points up in bunches thanks to Jeremiah Fears and Jalon Moore.
#10. Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13) – It will be John Calipari’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament as Arkansas’ coach, but it’s difficult to expect much from this bunch. Arkansas’s offense completely disappears from time to time, and the Razorbacks lack much NCAA Tournament experience outside of Johnell Davis. They will miss Adou Thiero, who has not played since February 22nd and is currently doubtful to return for their first-round matchup.
#11. Drake Bulldogs (30-3) – Drake is back in the Big Dance, but this team looks completely different. With a new head coach, the Bulldogs are basically an all-star team of Division 2 players, led by a coach with 4 national titles under his belt at that level. Obviously, this means Drake lacks Division 1 experience, but the Bulldogs muck up games with the slowest pace in the country. They dominate the glass on both sides of the floor, and junior guard Bennett Stritz is capable of completely taking over games on the offensive end.
#12. Colorado State Rams (25-9) – The Mountain West champions return to the NCAA Tournament in the midst of a 10-game winning streak and have a couple of likable traits. The Rams are top 25 in effective field-goal percentage and can score from anywhere on the floor. Furthermore, they limit offensive rebounds at a top-20 rate. However, they have been a bit fortunate that opponents have made just 68.1% of their free throws. Moreover, the Rams don’t have any wins over tournament teams outside of their conference.
#13. Grand Canyon Antelopes (26-7) – Bryce Drew’s squad has been known as one of the premier mid-major programs in the country during his tenure, highlighted by a win over Saint Mary’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. Tyon Grant-Foster has battled injuries at various points of the season, yet seems healthy at the moment. There’s a lot of continuity on this team, and the ‘Lopes are solid on the defensive end – but they aren’t as strong as last year’s team on either end of the floor. Turnovers are a major concern for this group.
#14. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (27-7) – The CAA champions are sound offensively and excel at creating second-chance opportunities, but they struggle from the three-point line and can be exposed on the defensive end. Their lone meeting against a power conference team was an 84-66 loss at Kansas, and they have 4 losses to teams outside the top 200 in KenPom’s rankings.
#15. Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (22-12) – The Mavericks heard their name called for the first time ever on Selection Sunday, but their stay in the NCAA Tournament may be short-lived. They can put up points in bunches, but a 51-point performance against Iowa State in December could be a sign of things to come in their first-round matchup against St. John’s.
#16. Norfolk State Spartans (24-10) – The MEAC champions return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022. They are 258th in turnover rate, 306th in three-point percentage and 336th in offensive rebounding rate allowed.
Who will make it to the second weekend of March Madness? Lock in our NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks, including a +920 longshot!
Midwest Region
#1. Houston Cougars (30-4) – Could this be Kelvin Sampson’s best chance yet to win the NCAA Tournament? The Cougars are once again elite defensively, boasting the 2nd-best efficiency metrics in the country and forcing turnovers at a top-20 rate. They also can light it up from the perimeter this year (39.8%), which is atypical of Sampson’s recent teams. This team absolutely has championship upside, and may even be the contrarian pick of the 4 top-seeded teams. A healthy J’Wan Roberts is crucial for their title hopes, though.
#2. Tennessee Volunteers (27-7) – The SEC Tournament runners-up have as strong of a resume as anyone, securing non-conference wins over Louisville, Baylor and Illinois that pair nicely with wins over Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, Alabama and Auburn in conference. This is a team that is top 15 in experience with one of the best point guards in the country and a top-3 defense, though depth and defensive rebounding are concerns for the ‘Vols.
#3. Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) – Mark Pope’s first season in Lexington has been a mixed bag. The Wildcats defeated Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee (twice) and Missouri, but a season-ending injury to Jaxson Robinson and recurring injuries to Lamont Butler likely will limit their upside – as will a defense that ranks outside the top 50 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and outside the top 150 in effective field-goal percentage
#4. Purdue Boilermakers (22-11) – Life after Zach Edey has been interesting for the national runners-up. They started the year strong with a win over Alabama, but that ended up being just 1 of 3 wins against top-25 teams per KenPom’s current rankings. Purdue doesn’t have much depth and is not anywhere near as good defensively as it was last year. It’s going to take a Herculean effort from Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn to get this team back to the national championship this year.
#5. Clemson Tigers (27-6) – Like last year, the Tigers profile as a team that could potentially make a deep run. They are top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and are 1 of the 10 most experienced teams in the country. However, Dillon Hunter’s broken hand limits their upside, as he is their best perimeter defender.
#6. Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) – The Fighting Illini hit a rough-patch from mid-January to mid-February while battling injuries and illnesses, but had a couple promising performances against Michigan and Purdue down the stretch. Still, they are 2-8 SU against teams currently in KenPom’s top 15, and – despite being very talented – there is not much Division 1 experience on this roster. Poor three-point shooting and spotty rim-defense are my biggest concerns with this team, but it helps that Morez Johnson returned to the lineup in the Big Ten Tournament. He is their best defender.
#7. UCLA Bruins (22-10) – Don’t tell head coach Mick Cronin, but the UCLA Bruins are going to have to travel out east for at least 1 more game this season. The Bruins are top 20 in defensive efficiency and turn opponents over at a top 10 rate, but they are poor from the free-throw line and lack much NCAA Tournament experience. There are good wins on this resume. UCLA beat Arizona, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Michigan State during the regular season.
#8. Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-8) – Gonzaga is criminally underseeded per EvanMiya, which makes sense given its top-10 mark in offensive efficiency and top-30 mark in defensive efficiency. The Zags lack size, but they have top-10 experience with a lineup consisting mostly of seniors and are 4th in turnover rate. They don’t have many marquee wins this season, which is atypical of Mark Few’s bunch, but their upside is higher than every other 8-seed in the tournament given their balance and experience – even if it means they have to go through Houston in a potential second-round matchup.
#9. Georgia Bulldogs (20-12) – Georgia has been a tough out all season long, as shown by wins over St. John’s, Kentucky and Florida. However, the Bulldogs are inconsistent offensively, especially away from home. For reference, their effective field-goal percentage drops 10% when they play on the road. Asa Newell spearheads Georgia’s defense, which is top 30 in efficiency and effective field-goal percentage.
#10. Utah State Aggies (26-7) – The Aggies have a very efficient offense and are very good from beyond the arc. They have wins over 4 tournament teams in Montana, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Colorado State, but they do not have a top-20 win, much less a top-20 matchup on their resume. Defense is the biggest concern for this team. It is outside the top 230 in effective field-goal percentage and 149th in efficiency.
#11. Texas Longhorns (19-15) / Xavier Musketeers (21-11) – Texas’ conference record is not pretty, but wins over Missouri, Texas A&M (twice) and Kentucky kept the Longhorns on the right side of the bracket. Meanwhile, Xavier was playing its best ball at the end of the regular season before losing to Marquette in the Big East Tournament by 2 points. The Musketeers are healthy, yet they lack a top-25 win per KenPom’s current rankings.
#12. McNeese State Cowboys (27-6) – Will Wade’s bunch is once again a popular upset pick due to its top-30 experience and an active 11-game winning streak, but the Cowboys’ upside remains to be seen. Their only top-100 win was over North Texas, while they lost to South Dakota State and Nicholls – both outside the top 130.
#13. High Point Panthers (29-5) – The Panthers have the nation’s 2nd-longest active winning streak and have a top-25 mark in offensive efficiency per KenPom. They take care of the ball, can shoot the three and have plenty of depth. However, their defense is outside the top 225 and they don’t have much experience against NCAA Tournament teams this season.
#14. Troy Trojans (23-10) – The Sun Belt champions struggled against their best competitors this season, averaging 50.67 points per game against Arkansas, Oregon and Houston. The Trojans are 333rd in turnover rate and 339th in three-point percentage, but are 6th in offensive rebounding rate and are good defensively at and around the rim.
#15. Wofford Terriers (19-15) – The surprise winner of the Southern Conference, the Wofford Terriers return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since they upset Seton Hall as the #10 seed in the first round in 2019. Fletcher Magee isn’t walking through the door for the Terriers, and a 35-point performance at Duke earlier in the year highlights how low this team’s ceiling is against quality defenses – which is not a good omen against Tennessee.
#16. SIUE Cougars (22-11) – The OVC champions have a better defense than offense, but averaged just 59.5 points per game against Indiana and Illinois this year – their only games against top 200 teams.
Let the madness begin! Find out our First Four best bets for the UNC vs SDSU and Xavier vs Texas matchups
