Matt Marquart
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Friday’s action brings 4 games whose winners will move on to the Elite Eight. Thursday’s matchups are pretty much what you would expect to see in the Sweet 16, as Michigan is the only team that is not at least a #5 seed. However, Friday’s matchups feature the madness of March showing its’ true colors. We have just one chalk matchup — #1 seed Kansas versus #4 seed Providence — while the other 3 games feature a #8 seed, a #10 seed, a #11 seed, and a #15 seed. Since #10 seed Miami and #11 seed Iowa State play each other, we are guaranteed at least one double-digit seed in the Elite Eight.
I have selected my favorite 2 plays from the Friday card and have outlined my reasoning on each below.
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Miami -2.5 over Iowa State (-110)
This is a strength-on-strength matchup, as Miami’s 18th-ranked offense will go up against Iowa State’s 5th-ranked defense. But if we dive a bit deeper than overall KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive rankings, Miami’s offense has some very clear advantages. The strength of the Cyclones’ defense is their ability to force turnovers, which they do at the fourth-highest rate in the country. Looking at the turnover column of the box scores from their first two NCAA Tournament games, it shouldn’t be a surprise that they reached the Sweet 16. Their first-round opponent, LSU, turned the ball over on over 30 percent of its possessions, while Wisconsin coughed it up on just under a quarter of its possessions. Despite forcing a combined 36 turnovers, Iowa State won each game by just 5 points. I’ll expand on that piece a bit later in the write-up.
In this matchup, the Cyclones could find it difficult to force turnovers against a Miami team that ranks sixth in the country in offensive turnover rate, per KenPom. Miami has just 9 turnovers combined in their first 2 games. If Iowa State can’t force turnovers, its defense is very beatable. The Cyclones rank just 215th in 2-point percentage defense, while Miami ranks 24th in 2-point percentage offense. Expect Miami to score efficiently in this game.
On the other end of the court, Iowa State’s offense is poor. The Cyclones are winning in spite of their offense, not because of it. Despite reaching this point in the tournament, Iowa State has failed to reach even 0.95 points per possession in either game. As alluded to earlier in the write-up, the Cyclones have won by just 5 points in both games thus far — because they also turn the ball over way too much. Per KenPom, Iowa State ranks 294th in offensive turnover rate and that will likely be an issue against Miami’s defense. The Hurricanes force turnovers at the 60th-highest rate in the country, so expect to see Miami win the turnover battle by an extremely wide margin. If the ‘Canes do, they should be able to win by more than a single possession.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Iowa State Cyclones vs Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina vs UCLA Over 141.5
The over in this game is a recommended bet, as both teams have clear paths to points in this matchup. For North Carolina, the path is in transition and from beyond the arc. Transition offense was a staple of the UNC offense for years under Roy Williams, and while the Tar Heels aren’t utilizing it quite as much under first-year coach Hubert Davis, their efficiency has remained high. Per Synergy, North Carolina ranks 39th in points per possession scored in transition this season.
UCLA’s defense can be beaten in transition, as the Bruins rank in just the 19th percentile in transition defense according to Synergy data. This is concerning for the Bruins, as not only are they vulnerable to giving up points in the open court but that also negates one of their biggest strengths: their half-court defense. Per Synergy, the Bruins rank in the 86th percentile in half-court defense, but if North Carolina is able to push the tempo and score before the UCLA defense can get set, the Heels should be able to score efficiently.
The other area in which North Carolina should be able to generate offense is from the 3-point line. The Tar Heels rank 41st in 3-point percentage and forward Brady Manek has been on fire in the NCAA Tournament. UCLA gave up the third-highest 3-point attempt rate to their opponents in conference play, so perhaps North Carolina can take advantage.
UCLA’s offense should be able to have success in the mid-range. It’s not the shot selection that I would advise if I were coaching the Bruins, but it’s the shot that they prefer to take. Per Hoop-Math, UCLA attempts mid-range jumpers at the 12th-highest rate in the country. It’s fair to point out that they also rank 16th in mid-range jumper percentage, so at least they make a high percentage of them. The North Carolina defense surrenders mid-range jumpers at the 44th-highest rate in the country, so UCLA should be comfortable getting the looks it desires.
One caveat for this play is that I would not recommend it at the current number if Jaime Jacquez is ruled out for UCLA — but I am expecting him to play. The latest information available is that he has not practiced but is not wearing a boot or showing any major signs of injury. Jacquez is a huge piece of the UCLA offense and would have a favorable matchup against North Carolina, as Leaky Black likely will be on Johnny Juzang.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for North Carolina Tar Heels vs UCLA Bruins
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