Caleb Wilfinger
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And then there were 4… The NCAA Tournament semifinals in Glendale, Arizona should provide plenty of entertainment, with a field that features two #1 seeds (UConn, Purdue), a #4 seed that averages more than 90 points per game (Alabama) and a Cinderella #11 seed that needed to win its conference tournament just to get into March Madness (NC State). Saturday night’s second semifinal showdown pits the Crimson Tide against a UConn team that has been an absolute juggernaut throughout this tournament. Donovan Clingan and company are significant favorites, but the Crimson Tide are riding high after knocking off North Carolina and Clemson to advance to the Final Four.
Here is my Alabama vs UConn Same Game Parlay for the huge matchup, which will be televised starting at 8:49 pm ET on TBS.
UConn -11.5 (-110)
Over 160.5 (-110)
Mark Sears under 19.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +596
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Mark Sears going under his point total obviously works well with UConn covering this big spread. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs in our parlay.
UConn Huskies -11.5 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)
Dating back to last season’s tournament, the Huskies have now won a whopping 10 games in a row by double-digits while covering the spread in each game as well. Alabama is a worthy challenger, but the Crimson Tide may simply be overmatched by this UConn team. Alabama’s offense ranks third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, largely due to their ability to take high-quality shots, as Alabama ranks third nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate at Shot Quality. In fact, in their win over Clemson, Nate Oats’ team shot 13/26 at the rim and went 16/36 from beyond the arc to put up 1.25 points per possession. However, succeeding in those areas is a much tougher task against UConn.
The Huskies have arguably the best defense in the nation and they just held KenPom’s 4th-ranked offense to 0.75 points per possession. The Huskies do a very good job of limiting three-point attempts and defending at the rim. leading the country in field goal percentage defense at the rim per Hoop-Math. On the other end, Alabama’s defense ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency, so it wouldn’t surprise me if UConn could name its number and the game ultimately gets away from the Crimson Tide.
Now read our Alabama vs UConn predictions for Saturday’s Final Four matchup
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Over 160.5 (-110)
As I’ve talked about all season long, Alabama’s defense is a major problem and is by far the worst unit in this game. It doesn’t help matters that UConn is the top offense in the nation per KenPom and hasn’t even reached its full potential in this tournament. Despite the fact that Connecticut is defeating teams by extremely wide margins, the Huskies are still shooting well below their season average from beyond the three-point arc. Not only is that bound to regress in a favorable direction for UConn, but it should come against a defense that struggles with defending the outside shot like Alabama’s does. On the other end, Alabama will need to push the tempo and attempt a ton of three-pointers in order to stay connected in this game, so I expect plenty of possessions and points in this matchup.
Mark Sears under 19.5 points (-110)
I’ve already extolled the virtues of UConn’s defense, but it bears repeating that the Huskies are as complete of a unit defensively as we have in the country outside of Houston. The Huskies limit threes at a top 50 rate and are elite in half-court defense, where they allow just 0.82 points per possession on the season. UConn is also excellent at taking away the opponents’ top scorer, much like we saw when the Huskies completely erased Terrance Shannon Jr. in last weekend’s Elite Eight matchup. They’ll be looking to do a similar thing here against a red-hot Mark Sears, and I think Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton should be more than up to the challenge in a game of this magnitude. Sears has had an excellent tournament, but with Clingan patrolling the paint and the Huskies excellent perimeter defense focusing on taking the Alabama point guard out of the game, it’s hard to see him clearing this inflated number.
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