Sam Avellone
The Midwest region runs through Indianapolis, as #1 Houston and #2 Tennessee face-off in what should be an exciting March Madness matchup between 2 gritty teams. A battle between 2 of the 3 most efficient defenses in the country, this game will likely consist of plenty of physicality and intensity – as these teams and coaches enter this Elite 8 matchup with plenty of expectations surrounding them. Rick Barnes hopes to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2003, while Kelvin Sampson hopes to earn his 2nd trip to the Final Four since 2021.
With so much on the line, I put together a Same Game Parlay for this Elite 8 matchup between Houston and Tennessee. Here are my parlay picks, and don’t forget to check the Pickswise March Madness predictions for our staff’s thoughts on the rest of the NCAA Tournament games.
Tennessee ML (+130)
Igor Milicic Jr (Tenn) 10+ points (+210)
Tennessee vs Houston Same Game Parlay odds: +475
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Tennessee Volunteers ML over Houston Cougars (+130)
Houston has looked everything but invincible in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars controlled much of the game against Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs came charging back late and had a chance to tie the game with under 2 minutes to play. Similarly, Purdue came roaring back on Friday after Houston built a 10-point lead in the Sweet 16, tying the game with under a minute to play. The Cougars needed a beautiful last-second out-of-bounds play to advance to this point. That worries me against this Tennessee squad, which is every bit as good as Houston on both ends of the floor.
In a game that I feel is so evenly matched, I prefer to side with the underdog that is led by one of the best maestros in the sport in Zakai Zeigler, one of the best shooters in Chaz Lanier and plenty of front court size to oppose Houston’s talented, albeit undersized bigs. Tennessee profiles as a team that can spread Houston out and beat the Cougars from the perimeter, which has been Houston’s kryptonite for years now. On the other end of the floor, Houston is the nation’s best 3-point shooting team. However, the Cougars prefer to create offense off the dribble and inside the arc. The Vols are well equipped to defend the Cougars dribble penetration, as they are in the 86th percentile against dribble jumpers this season per Hoop-Explorer. The Vols are also built to limit Houston’s offensive rebounds. According to Haslametrics, Tennessee is 3rd nationally in second-chance opportunities and second-chance conversion rate. Houston won’t go out quietly, but I like Tennessee to get it done.
Read our full Tennessee vs Houston prediction, including picks on the side and total
Igor Milicic Jr (Tenn) 10+ points (+210)
I usually target Zeigler or Lanier when I bet Tennessee props, as their usage rates are through the roof. However, I expect Igor Milicic to be an influential part of the offense on Sunday. The 6’10” Croatian provides the Tennessee front court with size to limit Houston around the rim and on the glass, but he also has the ability to step outside the paint and hit shots – which is key to breaking down Houston’s defense. The Cougars are so focused on taking away rim and paint opportunities that they are 313th in 3-point rate allowed. Milicic isn’t the most efficient shooter, but he’s taken 120 perimeter shots this season and is capable of hitting a few in this game if he’s left open. He is likely to be active in ball screen action with Zeigler as well, where he can roll to the rim or pop out for an open jumpshot if left unmarked.
Milicic hasn’t cracked 10 points since March 14, but he has 14 double-digit scoring performances this season. Almost every one of those performances came when he played at more than 20 minutes, which I believe we can pencil him in for given the advantages he presents on the offensive end in this matchup.
Find our best bets for Sunday’s Elite 8 card
