Ricky Dimon
From 68 to 4…. That is what we will be left with in the 2025 NCAA Tournament by the conclusion of play on Sunday. The Auburn Tigers and Michigan State Spartans are among the teams still alive, but only 1 will still be standing – and standing atop the South Region – after they duke it out for 40 minutes (or more?) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for this South Region final, which tips off at 5:05 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Michigan State vs Auburn prediction.
Michigan State ML (+176)
Under 147.5 (-105)
Jase Richardson to score 15+ points (-142)
Parlay odds: +676
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Jase Richardson scoring plenty of points would obviously work well with a Michigan State win. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Michigan State ML (+176)
There are very few scenarios in which I would bet against Michigan State in March, and this is not one of ‘em. That’s not to say I would flat-out guarantee a Spartans victory on Sunday, but the value is certainly on them as considerable underdogs. Head coach Tom Izzo simply takes his program to a different level when the stakes are highest. This isn’t Izzo’s most talented team, but it is scrappy, plays fundamental basketball and rebounds incredibly well. Of course, that’s not to say the talent is exactly lacking. Richardson, just a freshman, is one of the best players in the Big Ten. Auburn is a great team, but I don’t see it being able to blowout Michigan State and I would give the Spartans the edge in a close one down the stretch.
Under 147.5 (-105)
I think an under play correlates well with the Spartans winning, as they may not be able to keep up with the Tigers if this turns into a high-paced shootout. After all, Auburn ranks #12 nationally i points per game at 83.6; MSU is #76 in that same department. In 6 combined games during this NCAA Tournament, neither Auburn nor Michigan State has allowed more than 70 points. It is also worth noting that neither side ranks higher than #129 in the land in pace of play (possessions per game). I’m expecting a physical, defensive-minded struggle in Atlanta.
Jase Richardson to score 15+ points (-142)
The son of former MSU star Jason Richardson finished the regular season on an absolute heater and he has not looked back in March. Richardson scored at least 15 points in 4 of the last 5 regular-season games. In 2 Big Ten Tournament outings he went for 17 and 21 points. More of the same has continued in the Big Dance, with at least 15 points in 2 of the Spartans’ 3 contests – including a 20-point performance in Friday’s victory over Ole Miss. Richardson went 7-for-12 rom 3-point range in the conference tourney and is 7-for-15 on his triples during March Madness. Look for him to stay hot.
