Sam Avellone
It’s not very often that you see teams play 3 times in 1 college basketball season, but that’s exactly what we have on Friday’s March Madness slate with the Kentucky Wildcats and the Tennessee Volunteers. Despite winning both of the regular season meetings, one without Lamont Butler and one without Jaxson Robinson, Kentucky is listed as an underdog in this matchup – which is interesting considering how poor head coach Rick Barnes has been against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. A battle of former SEC East division rivals, this matchup is sure to be entertaining and is perfect for a Kentucky vs Tennessee Same Game Parlay. Here are my favorite parlay picks for Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup, and don’t forget to check out the rest of our March Madness picks – we went 4-0 on Thursday’s slate!
Tennessee ML (-205)
Zakai Zeigler (Tenn) 15+ points (-120)
Otega Oweh (UK) 15+ points (-140)
Kentucky vs Tennessee Same Game Parlay odds: +328
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tennessee Volunteers ML over Kentucky Wildcats (-205)
I realize Barnes has an awful postseason resume and reputation, but I like the Vols to win this game outright and advance to the Elite 8. While Kentucky won both regular season meetings, there is some noise surrounding those results. The Wildcats shot an incredible 50% from the 3-point line on 48 combined attempts across the 2 games, while the Volunteers shot 11/45 from the perimeter in the first meeting and 3/18 in the second. In such a weird neutral site venue (this game is being played in half of Lucas Oil Stadium, the home of the Indianapolis Colts), I’m not convinced Kentucky is going to be able to replicate its 3-point success for a 3rd time.
If the Wildcats are off from the perimeter, Tennessee should be at an advantage due to their defensive strength inside the arc. The Volunteers have one of the best interior defenses in the country, boasting a top 35 mark in opposing near-proximity rate with the #1 near-proximity shooting percentage allowed (Haslametrics).
On the other end of the floor, Tennessee has been very good this postseason. Since the regular season ended, the Volunteers are 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Barttorvik, scoring at least 1.08 points per possession in each of their 5 postseason games. They have been very aggressive with the ball in those games, getting to the free-throw line at a top-12 rate and knocking down 78% of their free -throws. If Kentucky’s shooting regresses as expected, Tennessee should be at an advantage everywhere else on the floor and come away with the win.
Read our Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup
Zakai Zeigler (TENN) 15+ points scored (-120)
Zakai Zeigler is the maestro of Tennessee’s offense and should have an insane usage rate on Friday night with the expectation that Kentucky’s Lamont Butler will spend a majority of his time defending Chaz Lanier. Zeigler has surpassed this number in 4 of 5 postseason games, mostly through free throws and efficient production rather than shot volume. In fact, he’s primarily played as a distributor this postseason, taking less than 10 shots in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games. As I alluded to, that should change tonight.
With Kentucky’s best perimeter defender on Lanier, Zeigler will face exploitable 1-on-1 matchups against the rest of Kentucky’s backcourt. In the 1st meeting against Kentucky, the senior guard shot 18 times, but scored just 13 points because he was 1/11 from the perimeter. In the 2nd meeting, Zeigler was much more efficient, scoring 17 points while connecting on 7 of 9 attempts inside the arc. During Tennessee’s postseason run, Zeigler has been excellent at taking his opponents off the dribble, leading to good looks at the rim or trips to the free-throw line. Expect that to continue in this matchup.
Aim high with our Sweet 16 parlay picks for tonight’s games at +1175 odds!
Otega Oweh (UK) 15+ points scored (-140)
If the threes aren’t falling for Kentucky, then Otega Oweh is going to be key for the Wildcats to have a chance. Oweh doesn’t rely on perimeter shots, but rather makes his hay in the mid-range and around the rim. On average, he takes at least 10 2-point shots per game and he gets to the free-throw line quite a bit, as well – boasting a top 125 mark out of more than 2,300 Division 1 players in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (KenPom). Although he was not part of the 3-point party in either of Kentucky’s wins over Tennessee (1/2 combined from the perimeter in those games), he shot the ball from inside the arc 10 times in both games while getting to the free throw line 15 total times.
Oweh has been key to Kentucky’s offensive success in March, averaging just over 17 points per game. He has scored at least 15 points in 5 of Kentucky’s 7 games this month, all of which were wins. The 2 games Kentucky lost in that time were the 2 games in which he scored less than 10. Expect him to be heavily involved in this one.
After our experts earned a 4-0 sweep last night, don’t miss our Sweet 16 best bets for Friday
