Caleb Wilfinger
Following 4 days of March Madness action last week, we are down from 64 to 16. That’s right, the Sweet 16 has arrived. This has been a surprisingly straightforward tournament thus far, but the fates of any title contender can always change at a moment’s notice. That even includes the tournament favorite Duke Blue Devils, who are set to face the Arizona Wildcats on Thursday night in Newark, New Jersey. Let’s get into our Arizona vs Duke Same Game Parlay picks for this East Region semifinal, which tips off at 9:39 pm ET. You can also find out our March Madness picks for EVERY game in the NCAA Tournament.
Arizona +9.5 (-110)
Over 153.5 (-110)
Cooper Flagg under 21.5 points (-122)
Arizona vs Duke Same Game Parlay odds: +568
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Arizona Wildcats +9.5 over Duke Blue Devils (-110)
Arizona certainly has the athletes to put up a fight against the Blue Devils’ elite talent, and the Wildcats should be able to hang in this game thanks to their top-10 offense and excellent offensive rebounding profile (15th in OREB percentage per BartTorvik). The true deciding factor in this game will be the type of game that Arizona gets from senior guard Caleb Love, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career in recent weeks.
On the other side, Duke is obviously a complete team, one that certainly looks like the best in the nation at this point. However, there is something of an unknown in this game, and that is how Jon Scheyer’s side will adjust to playing its first top 10-15 caliber team since December. It’s difficult to account for the significant step-up in competition that the Blue Devils will face in this game, and the last time Duke played a team that was anywhere near Arizona’s weight class from a talent or statistical perspective, it lost on the road against Clemson back in early February. While we don’t expect Duke to slip up and lose outright, Arizona should do enough to keep things within single digits on Thursday.
Check out our full Arizona vs Duke prediction
Over 153.5 (-110)
From a game script perspective, the total going over likely correlates well with the Wildcats covering the number. Duke is not a team that pushes the pace (270th in adjusted tempo), but the Blue Devils are extremely efficient on the offensive end. Jon Scheyer’s team is the top-rated offense in the nation per KenPom, and Duke is a machine from all areas of the floor, ranking 1st in effective field goal percentage, 5th in two-point percentage and 15th in three-point percentage. On the other side, Arizona loves to get out and run, and the Wildcats should be incentivized to pick up as many easy buckets as possible in this game, especially considering how stingy Duke’s defense is in the halfcourt. Both teams also do a tremendous job of making their free throws, which should aid in this total going over as well.
Get set for more March Madness action tonight with our Sweet 16 parlay picks at +1019 odds!
Cooper Flagg under 21.5 points (-122)
No other player has as much buzz surrounding him as Cooper Flagg heading into this weekend’s games, and for good reason. After all, the freshman phenom has been outstanding all season long and appears to be the consensus top pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. With that said, this Duke team has so many different ways to beat you, and the Blue Devils should show that on Thursday. Flagg figures to get the majority of the attention from the Arizona defense, which should put him in more of a facilitator role, instead of one where he needs to score constantly to help his team. The freshman forward has gone under this point total in 12 of his last 14 games played, and I don’t see that trend slowing down on Thursday.
Now check out our Maryland vs Florida Same Game Parlay for their Sweet 16 matchup
