Sam Avellone
Saturday’s March Madness Elite 8 matchup between Duke and Alabama should be nothing short of must-see tv. The Blue Devils and the Crimson Tide have 2 of the most potent offenses in the country with plenty of star-power and future NBA players. Both teams come into this game having scored at least 100 points in the Sweet 16, so expect fireworks when they meet at the Prudential Center in Newark on Saturday night. Given the expected offensive firepower in this game, a Same Game Parlay seems in order. Here are my favorite parlay picks for the Elite 8 matchup between Alabama and Duke.
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Duke ML (-280)
Over 172.5 (-110)
Cooper Flagg (Duke) 25+ points (+112)
Alabama vs Duke Same Game Parlay odds: +305
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Duke ML (-280)
I don’t see Alabama having another record-breaking offensive performance in the Elite 8. In fact, Duke profiles as the type of team that matches up very well with Alabama on both ends of the floor. The Blue Devils are built much differently than BYU, in that they are excellent in taking away transition opportunities and utilizing their perimeter length to contest opposing 3-point shots. Successfully taking the Tide out of their rhythm in both of those areas would force them to create offense more in the paint and around the rim, which are 2 areas Duke excels defensively.
On the other end of the floor, the Blue Devils can score from anywhere. Alabama is above-average in its ability to defend the perimeter, but Duke has the size to shoot over Alabama’s smaller guards and the athleticism to blow by defenders for mid-range looks or shots at the rim. Look for the Blue Devils to utilize their versatility with Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg to get past the Tide and advance to the Final 4.
Read my full Alabama vs Duke prediction for this massive Elite 8 matchup!
Over 172.5 (-110)
While I believe Duke has enough length and versatility to limit Alabama’s offense, I don’t think the Blue Devils will be efficient enough on the defensive end to keep his game under the total. That’s not to say Duke won’t win or cover, but given the expected pace of this game and Duke’s efficiency on the offensive end, I can only look at the Over. The Blue Devils just played a 71-possession game against Arizona in the Sweet 16 and scored 100 points. Keep in mind, 71 possessions is slow compared to Alabama’s typical pace of play, as the Tide are usually up around 75 or 76 possessions per game. In the Round of 32, Duke scored 89 points in just 59 possessions against Baylor, so this team can absolutely fill it up no matter the pace at which the game is played. In fact, Duke is 1st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. There aren’t many teams that are near Duke’s level of efficiency on that end of the floor, but Florida and Auburn are – and the Tide gave up an average of 97 points per game in 4 games against those 2 teams. Expecting Duke to score at least 95 points, the Over stands out to me as an excellent bet and parlay piece.
Cooper Flagg (Duke) 25+ points scored (+112)
I haven’t been creative with this SGP, but why should I when I love this matchup for Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils? No need to overthink it. Flagg is one of, if not the best player in the country, and he has an elite usage rate. He can knock down shots from anywhere on the floor, and he gets to the free throw line at a top 85 rate nationally, which is key in his individual matchup. Alabama’s Grant Nelson and Mouhamed Dioubate figure to be the primary defenders on Flagg, but neither of them play very disciplined defense. In fact, Nelson was often in foul trouble in Alabama’s biggest regular season and SEC tournament games, while Dioubate averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes (KenPom) and often picks up 4 or 5 fouls in fewer than 20 minutes of playing time. Assuming those trends continue, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Flagg live at the line in this game. If that’s the case, this number feels of value. For what it’s worth, Flagg has attempted at least 10 free throws in 5 games this season and surpassed 25 points in all but 1 of them. Getting to the line 10 times in this game is certainly on the table given its expected flow and the Tide’s propensity to foul in the front court.
