Andrew Wilsher
Show Bio
Ladies and gentlemen, let the madness begin! March Madness has arrived, and it’s arguably the best week in all of sports when everyone pieces together a bracket and we see upsets take place in the world of college basketball. Last year we saw a ton of Cinderella stories, as San Diego State, Miami and FAU all reached the Final Four. UConn eventually cut down the nets, but even the Huskies were +2500 odds at the start of the tournament. Now UConn finds itself as the favorite to repeat. Can they get it done? Let’s dive into the March Madness winner best bets from 5 of our best college basketball experts!
Don’t miss our March Madness picks for EVERY NCAA Tournament game!
Matt Marquart: Purdue Boilermakers (+750)
The Boilermakers are not without reason for concern, as we have already seen them at their worst in the NCAA Tournament. However, the starting backcourt for Purdue in their shocking loss to Fairleigh Dickinson was made up of freshmen. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer shot a combined 6-of-20 from the field and committed 10 turnovers in that loss. Smith has not only improved from last year, but he has been incredible. He ranks 13th nationally in assist rate, shoots over 44 percent from three, and was named First Team All-Big Ten. Zach Edey gets all the headlines and rightfully so, but Smith’s emergence and the addition of Lance Jones has Purdue poised to erase the embarrassment of last season in a big way. I believe that UConn is the best team, but the difficulty of their region and the better odds for Purdue have me picking the Boilermakers to win it all this year.
See our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions for March Madness, including a +4000 longshot!
Sam Avellone: Purdue Boilermakers (+750)
Purdue has quite a manageable path this year. I know it’s difficult to argue that after the Boilermakers lost to Fairleigh-Dickinson in the Round of 64 last year, but they are much better offensively this season – especially from the perimeter. Last year, Braden Smith was the only player on the team that made more than 36% of his 3-point shots. Fast forward to this season, where Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis are all top 50 nationally in three-point percentage at nearly 44% or better with at least 100 attempts. That is a huge improvement for Purdue and will be extremely difficult for defenses to contain in addition to the post domination of Zach Edey. With such reliable shooters, opponents must think twice about sending doubles to Edey. If they don’t send doubles, then Edey will likely dominate the post and the boards against a vast majority of opposing big men.
On the other end of the floor, the addition of Lance Jones provides Purdue with another above-average perimeter defender to play alongside Smith, which is not a luxury they had last season and one that would come in handy against some of the guard-heavy teams the Boilermakers would meet later in the tournament. Remember, last time a #1 seed lost in the first round, it won the NCAA Tournament the year following.
Expert March Madness picks to reach the Final Four at +750 and +1200 odds
Caleb Wilfinger: UConn Huskies (+450)
Even though there isn’t much value at this number, I’m still going to be boring when it comes to my national championship pick. Historically, UConn profiles well as a team that could go back-to-back for the first time since the Florida Gators pulled off this feat in the 2006-2007 seasons. The Huskies have been the most consistent team in the nation all season long, and that shows in their predictive metrics and year-long results. Champions of the Big East in both the regular season and the conference tournament, UConn ranks inside the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom and Barttorvik, and that doesn’t even account for the fact that the Huskies are 2nd in defensive efficiency over the past month.
With the likes of Triston Newton, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle in the backcourt, Dan Hurley’s team should be able to withstand on-ball pressure from any opponent. Donovan Clingan is a force in the paint and Alex Karaban hit big shots during last season’s run to a title, so he’s been there and done it all before. There aren’t any glaring flaws on this roster, which can’t be said about pretty much any other team in college basketball. The Huskies are massive favorites to reach the Final Four and once they get there, they wouldn’t have to face my #2 or #3 teams (Houston and Purdue) until the title game. It’s hard not to like this talented and experienced group to become the first repeat champions in nearly 2 decades.
Get set for the start of the madness with our First Four best bets
Kyle Lupas: Purdue Boilermakers (+750)
KenPom has been a reliable resource in helping predict eventual National Champions and even the most casual of college basketball fans have heard of this model. Evaluating this model and the history of the tournament, there are certain trends that cannot be ignored – so here are the facts. Since 2001 using pre-tournament rankings, 19 of the last 22 titles have been won by teams that rank top-6 in the KenPom ratings, so let’s start there. We’ve now narrowed the field of 68 to just 6 teams – Connecticut, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Iowa State and Arizona. It’s also true that 15 of those teams ranked top-6 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Therefore, we can eliminate Houston (17), Auburn (10), Iowa State (55), and Arizona (8). That leaves us with just UConn and Purdue. While UConn is the overall number 1 seed, it appears that they have the toughest road considering they’d possibly have to knock off Auburn, Iowa State, and Arizona to reach the championship – all top-6 KenPom teams.
That’s why the Purdue Boilermakers seem like the most logical pick. Assuming Purdue advances to the Sweet 16, they’d likely play an underperforming Gonzaga team or a Kansas team riddled with injuries and a lack of depth. The Boilermakers’ toughest task in the Midwest could come in the Elite Eight against Creighton or Tennessee, but with Zach Edey and the elevated play of their guards this season, I have them advancing. Looking at the Final Four, there aren’t many teams that seem threatening coming out of the South. Houston has been great this season, but their offense has been stagnant at times, Duke has a tough first-round opponent in James Madison, Kentucky has been very inconsistent and Tyler Kolek might not be 100% with an oblique injury, limiting how far Marquette can go. This team’s biggest threat would be UConn in the Championship game, but like I previously stated, they have a difficult road and I’m projecting them to get bounced early. I’ll take the Boilermakers over any team coming out of the East and West regions.
Read our full March Madness 68-team bracket guide for info on EVERY team!
Ricky Dimon: North Carolina Tar Heels (+1600)
UConn is the best team in the nation, but it’s not like the defending champions are entirely dominant. I’m not about to back them at around +400. Instead, the best bet is on North Carolina. The Tar Heels used a sweep of rival Duke to capture the ACC regular-season title. They reached the ACC Tournament final before falling to upstart N.C. State, which I’m not upset about at all. One, the loss should keep the fire lit under UNC; two, it may have impacted the Heels’ futures odds just a bit — thus giving us even better value.
Star guard RJ Davis earned Player of the Year honors in the ACC and big man Armando Bacot also brings a ton of experience to the table. They were major players on the 2021-22 North Carolina squad that finished runner-up in the NCAA Tournament to Kansas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this extremely talented team go one step further in 2023-24. Head coach Hubert Davis’ club earned the fourth #1 seed in the bracket, giving it a nice path to the Final Four – and beyond.
