Filip Tomic
All eyes are on the Boston Celtics this Sunday as they begin their title defense against the Orlando Magic in Game 1 of their East 1st Round series. I’ve analyzed the game in-depth and come out with my 3 favorite picks, combining them into a +364 odds Same Game Parlay. Make sure to visit our NBA Picks page for NBA Playoffs predictions, but now let’s dive into my Magic vs Celtics SGP!
Over 206 Total Points (-108)
Jayson Tatum to Score 25+ Points (-120)
Paolo Banchero 2+ Made Threes (-120)
Same Game Parlay odds: +364
Over 206 (-108)
Judging by how the oddsmakers have priced this game, they expect a dominant Celtics win and the Orlando Magic to score under 100 points, but will that be the case? I am not so convinced. The two teams did score just 172 points between them a little over a week ago in the regular season, but that game was marked by both sides playing their reserves as the game carried very little weight. In the two other meetings this season we saw 212 and 215 point scored between them which is exactly the range I’m expecting the point total of Game 1 to be.
These were the two slowest paced teams during the regular season and in general games do tend to slow down in the Playoffs, but let’s not forget we still have the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA in this game. The Celtics ranked 11th best in three-point efficiency at 36.8% while making an NBA high 17.8 threes per game. This team is capable of going off at any moment, you can just imagine the atmosphere at TD Garden will be electric as they start off their title request, I think we are in for a high scoring Game 1 here. In the last 10 games head-to-head we saw more than 206 points a total of 8 times, make it 9 on Sunday.
Jayson Tatum to Score 25+ Points (-120)
Often criticized for not doing enough, Jayson Tatum enters this postseason with a lot to prove, even though he led his team to a championship last season. In 72 regular season games he averaged 26.8 points per game finishing 5th best in the NBA. He played the Magic only once in the 3 meetings and torched them for 30 points on 57% shooting from the field and 44% from three. If we look back at previous years and match-ups vs Orlando, he’s averaging 26.2 points per game over the last 10 games, clearing this line 7 times. Towards the end of the regular season it was apparent that the Celtics would finish with the 2nd seed so Tatum strategically took nights off or was somewhat laid back in his approach, saving energy for a deep postseason run. After not winning the NBA Finals MVP award and getting benched for most of Team USA’s run in the Paris Olympics, Tatum is very motivated to prove his doubters wrong this time around. I expect him to lift his game up a notch, what better way to send out a message that he has arrived than with a dominant performance in the postseason opener.
Paolo Banchero 2+ Made Threes (-120)
Even though he didn’t have the best of games against the Atlanta Hawks shooting just 4-for-13 from the field and 0-for-3 from three, nobody can deny the importance of Paolo Banchero to this Orlando Magic team. An early season oblique injury forced him to miss a full two months of action which is part of the reason why the Magic are in the 7th seed entering the playoffs. Thankfully though the injury didn’t leave any permanent marks on his game, he has come back stronger than ever, elevating his points average to almost 30 per game in March. The three-ball was also falling at a relatively solid 35% clip, over the last 20 games he’s averaging exactly 2 makes from downtown, while clearing this line 13 times. His combination of size and agility can cause problems even for elite defenses like the Celtics have, I’m curious to see how they defend him to start this series. In his last 10 meetings against them he’s made a pair of threes 8 times, shooting over 42%. Boston did rank 3rd best in opponent three-point percentage this season, but it might take them a while to settle in as the postseason starts, so hopefully Banchero can take advantage here.
