Ricky Dimon
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The clay-court swing continues on its way toward the French Open later this month and it heats up with yet another Masters 1000 tournament, the Mutua Madrid Open. That means it awards 1000 ranking points to the winner—the second-highest level on the ATP Tour behind only Grand Slams, which are worth 2000 (there are also 500s and 250s). With both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal suiting up for this week’s festivities, Madrid boasts an extremely strong field.
Let’s take look at the odds to win the Madrid title and discuss the best bets to be made. It should be noted that the WTA Tour is also in Madrid but that tournament has already been going on for several days so for now we well stick to the men’s side.
Madrid Open odds
Here are the odds for the Mutua Madrid Open men’s singles tournament, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rafael Nadal +225
Carlos Alcaraz +330
Stefanos Tsitsipas +500
Novak Djokovic +600
Alexander Zverev +1100
Casper Ruud +1600
Andrey Rublev +1700
Jannik Sinner +2800
Diego Schwartzman +3500
Sebastian Korda +4000
Roberto Bautista Agut +4000
Miomir Kecmanovic +4000
3-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+1100)
Not taking odds into account, I have red-hot Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz winning the tournament. However, there is no way I am touching him at a low price of +330. Instead, I will look toward better value plays and start with Zverev at +1100. It’s true that the German has not posted his best results in recent weeks, but a return trip to Madrid could be just what the doctor ordered. He is 15-2 lifetime at the event with two titles and has never lost prior to the quarterfinals. Zverev is the defending champion after this run to last year’s trophy included wins over Nadal, Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem, and Matteo Berrettini. The world No. 3 is on the opposite side of the draw from Djokovic, Nadal, and Alcaraz, so there is no reason why he can’t win it again.
2-star value play: Novak Djokovic (+600)
I’m not totally on the Djokovic bandwagon given his recent struggles both on and off the court. That being said, I’m also not totally off it. When you can get the world No. 1 at +600, it’s worth making at least a decent-sized play. Although Djokovic is by no means in peak form, he at least managed to reach the final in Belgrade a couple of weeks ago before falling to Andrey Rublev in three sets. The 34-year-old Serb is 22-5 lifetime in Madrid with three titles since the tournament switched from indoor hard courts to clay with three titles. His draw may not be the best this week, but at least for him Nadal and Alcaraz are in their own section of the bracket so at least one of those Spaniards will have to lose prior to a potential date with Djokovic in the semis.
1-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+2800)
Similar to the case with Zverev, Madrid conditions should suit Sinner to prediction. Both guys are tall, serve huge, hit with a ton of pace off both the forehand and backhand and move extremely well on clay for their size. High altitude favors big hitters, as balls fly through the air faster than they do at other tournaments. Relatively high bounces on clay are ideal for players like Zverev and Sinner since they generally hit shots right in their strike zone. Sinner is sporting an awesome 19-4 record this season and has reached the quarterfinals of four tournaments. He is due to go all the way soon and Madrid could be where it happens. At +2800, the Italian is a steal.
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