Andrew Ortenberg
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Best Bet – Los Angeles Clippers Over 54.5 wins (-110)
Worst Bet – Clippers to win Pacific Division (-150)
The Clippers had an undeniably successful 2018 season. They didn’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs, but it was still a great accomplishment considering how low expectations were entering the season. Doc Rivers took a ragtag group of players, and turned them into a squad that could compete with the league’s best teams on any given night.
Even after trading away Tobias Harris at the deadline, the team only continued to get better. Lou Williams was once again the league’s Sixth Man of the Year, and the award was well deserved. They managed to sneak into the playoffs, and in the first round they put up a heck of a fight against the Warriors. They managed to win two games in Golden State and push the series to six games, and they performed better than either the Rockets or Trail Blazers did in subsequent series’ against the Warriors in the playoffs.
They already had a lot of people buzzing because of what Rivers was able to do in 2018, and then they went out and had one of the best offseasons in NBA history. The Clips went all out in their pursuit of Kawhi Leonard, and they ended up bringing the reigning Finals MVP back home to Los Angeles. They didn’t stop there. Moments after it was announced they’d be landing Leonard, word trickled out that they’d acquired Paul George in a trade with the Thunder.
Overnight, the Clippers went from eight seed to title contender. It’s one of the fastest transformations in NBA history, and the Clippers’ front office pulled off an absolute coup. That being said, they’re now facing very high expectations. The front office is under massive pressure to win now after they mortgaged the future by trading a huge haul of draft picks for George, and the Clips need to show well in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see how they hold up with the added scrutiny.
Los Angeles Clippers Win Total: O/U 54.5 Wins
The Clippers easily went over their number last season, as they far surpassed expectations. Obviously with the additions they made, their win total is much higher in 2019. Besides Leonard and George, the Clippers also added Moe Harkless and Patrick Patterson. They aren’t as flashy, but they’ll be very solid depth pieces. They still have Williams and Landry Shamet to provide scoring from the backcourt, and Patrick Beverly will continue playing lockdown defense.
The weakness is in the frontcourt. They have Ivica Zubac as the starting center, but not much depth behind him. That being said, their bench scoring unit should again be elite. Montrezl Harrell is one of the best scoring forwards out there, and he should be a huge boost. Paul George is going to miss some time as he recovers from his shoulder injury which is concerning, but the talent on this team is too much to deny.
I’m taking the over for this prop because any team that has Leonard and George isn’t going to lose anywhere close to 30 games.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes -1500, No +1000
The odds here are clearly quite steep. The Clippers already made the playoffs last season, and then they had the best summer of any team in the league. Los Angeles is a legit Western Conference contender, and the teams who are going to be battling it out for the eight seed aren’t even in the same realm as them. Even if Leonard or George suffered a serious injury, they’d almost certainly still make the playoffs. It would probably take both of them going down (knock on wood) for them to miss the postseason.
The Clippers are going to make the playoffs, but these odds are too steep to make it worthwhile. There’s no reason to give bookmakers an interest free loan for this little return.
Odds to win Pacific Division: -150
Count the Clippers being an odds-on favorite to win the Pacific Division as something I wasn’t sure I’d ever see. The Clippers are way ahead according to oddsmakers, but they’re going to face stiff competition. The Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis now, and they won’t be taking a backseat in LA quietly. The Lakers will be much better than they were last year, and they’ll now be free of all the distractions that plagued them in 2018.
The Warriors are still in the division as well, and I don’t think they’ll take as big of a step back as people seem to be expecting. They still have Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson will be back midway through the season. They also added D’Angelo Russell this offseason, giving them a fourth All-Star again. You can’t count them out.
I’m obviously high on this Clippers team, but I’m not sure I’d want to lay this kind of juice on a regular season title that doesn’t mean too much. The Clips are going to want to rest Leonard and George to make sure they don’t wear down, so I wouldn’t lay this price.
Odds to win the Western Conference: +225
The Western Conference has clearly improved, and the Clippers have improved the most. Leonard dragged his Raptors team to a title last year without a player nearly as good as George by his side. The Clippers have one of the best coaches in the league, and some strong scorers around their two stars who can pick up some slack when need be. All that being said, these odds aren’t great.
The Clippers could certainly win the West, but they also don’t have much deep playoff experience outside of Leonard, and there could be chemistry issues.
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +350
Similar story here. The Clippers have a good shot to win their first NBA championship, but they’ll still need a lot of things to break their way.
The season is simply too unpredictable for me to take the Clippers at this short of a price.
