Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Justin Herbert gets it done

I make this game Chargers -3 and think they are being undervalued in the market, and the Jags are overvalued. I get the better QB, better weapons (assuming Mike Williams plays), and better defense without having to lay a lot with the Chargers. I get that people are enamored with the Jags, but I think their deficiencies have been masked by a string of some recent opponents that they have faced.

They have won 5 straight games but look at this list of QBs they have faced during their run- Josh Dobbs, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson to end the season. On the surface, the Jags’ pass defense looks pretty decent, sitting 17th in EPA per drop back. But they have done that against the 2nd easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season, and that doesn’t even take into account facing Jalen Hurts in a rainstorm and Justin Herbert just days after it looked like he wouldn’t play with that bad rib injury. They have played an incredible 8 games against bottom 5 EPA pass offenses, the single most of any pass defense in the NFL. They’ve only faced 5 top 15 EPA pass offenses- Philly, Las Vegas, Kansas City, Dallas and Detroit. They are 2-3 straight up and ATS while allowing 30 points per game. If you took every pass defense in the NFL and eliminated all games against the bottom 5 pass offenses each team faced, the Jags’ EPA pass defense would rank 31st in the NFL as compared to their current 17th ranking. That is the single largest change in rankings in the NFL. This shows just how much their numbers have benefitted from beating up on the really poor pass offenses. The Chargers, by the way, actually improve from 13th to 10th.

The Jags have also allowed the 8th-highest YAC per reception and 8th-highest missed tackle percentage. Again, those are bad numbers on their own, but when you consider how easy their schedule has been, it looks way worse. The Jags are terrible at defending the slot and are 30th in EPA over the middle of the field, allowing the 2nd highest rate of pass plays in that part of the field. Look for a strong Gerald Everett game as he is 2nd on the Chargers in targets over the middle of the field and has caught 3 TDs.

This Chargers offense is much different when healthy. Excluding Week 18, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have only played six games together this year. In those games, the Chargers’ pass offense EPA goes from 20th to the 10th best pass offense in the NFL. The Chargers went 5-1 straight up (only L was 30-27 to KC) and 5-0-1 ATS in those six games. As of this writing, Williams had not practiced, but Brandon Staley reiterated that he is expected to practice at some point during the week.
Look for Herbert to throw it a ton in this game to take advantage of this pass-funnel defense of the Jags. They have allowed a 7% neutral pass rate over expected – 4th highest in the NFL. Herbert averages 41 pass attempts per game but has faced six other opponents that rank in the top 10 in highest pass rate over expected. Herbert’s attempts in those games have been 57, 51, 47, 45, 42 and 35 (46.1 on average).

The Jags will likely want to run the football on this Chargers defense and certainly understand why. They are 29th in success rate and EPA allowed on the ground. The Chargers allowed the Rams to run for 166 yards on 26 attempts (6.4 YPC) but still were able to dominate the Rams in a 31-10 game. You can get away with teams running the football, but a bad pass defense like the Jags are way more exposed to big plays. It will be a lot harder for Trevor Lawrence to throw it on this Chargers defense. Joey Bosa came back two weeks ago and should be ready to go on Saturday, and he has helped make the Chargers’ pass defense an elite unit. Excluding Week 18, the Chargers have held four straight opponents to a pass EPA below their season average. Since Week 10, the Chargers are 4th best in pass EPA allowed and 3rd in success rate allowed. They are as healthy as they’ve been all season on defense, and the star power with Bosa, Mack and Derwin James are who I’d much rather back here.