Ricky Dimon
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Roger Federer will play the final match of his career on Friday night at the Laver Cup, an annual team competition between Europe and the rest of the world.
Federer, who has not played since Wimbledon last summer, announced his retirement last week. Ongoing knee problems have prevented the 41-year-old from making a comeback, and he is not fit enough to play singles this weekend at the O2 Arena in London. However, Federer does feel good enough to suit up for one more doubles match – with none other than fellow all-time great Rafael Nadal.
Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal doubles odds and pick
Federer and Nadal will represent Team Europe against Team World’s American duo of Jack Sock and Frances Tiafoe. Nadal and Sock are without question two of the best doubles players on the planet, so this contest could come down to Federer and Tiafoe. Federer, of course, is a question mark because of his rust. Nonetheless, the Swiss has been practicing well by all indications and it should also be noted that he is an Olympic gold-medal winner in men’s doubles (with Stan Wawrinka at the 2008 Beijing Games). Meanwhile, Tiafoe owns a 3-8 doubles record on the ATP Tour in 2022 and has never won a title.
Federer and Nadal are +110 underdogs, while Sock and Tiafoe are -138 favorites. If Federer is anywhere close to 100 percent, this looks like an even matchup on paper. Thus there is value on the underdogs, especially considering that they will enjoy absolutely raucous crowd support – to that extent that things might even get out of hand.
Laver Cup odds and prediction
The Europeans are massive -450 favorites; Team World is a +330 underdog. Similar to the Presidents Cup in golf this weekend, the odds are significantly skewed. Unlike in the Presidents Cup, however, this Laver Cup price is competitive enough such that there appears to be value on the heavily favored side.
Team Europe is 4-0 all time in the Laver Cup after completely destroying Team World 14-1 last year in Boston. Captain Bjorn Borg’s side has always featured far more talent, and this 2022 installment could be the most egregious example of all. In addition to Federer and Nadal, Borg also has Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray at his disposal. And we haven’t even gotten to the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini and world #2 Casper Ruud! World #12 Taylor Fritz is the highest-ranked player for the opposition; he would be the 5th-highest on Team Europe.
The points system is such that one team could win fewer matches and still capture the Laver Cup (Friday’s quartet of matches are worth 1 point apiece, followed by 2 on Saturday and 3 on Sunday). That could allow the underdogs to have a mathematical chance of victory well into the weekend, but it is still almost impossible to see them lifting the trophy for the first time.
Odds of -450 have an implied probability of 81.8 percent. In reality, Team Europe’s chance to win has to be considered well over 90.
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