Phil Agius
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Deadlines spur action and the most-anticipated trade of the NFL offseason finally went down 3 days before the NFL Draft, as the Green Bay Packers traded quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets on Monday.
Unless you’ve been living in a darkness retreat for the last few months, you’ll know that veteran passer Rodgers eventually decided not to retire or stay with the Packers, and the Jets had been favorites to sign him for some time, even acquiring one of his favorite receivers in anticipation of his arrival. Trade talks had stalled, though, with nothing much happening for a couple of weeks until the two parties finally got it done on Monday.
Let’s take a look at what the Jets gave up to acquire Rodgers and what it means for both teams and their Super Bowl odds.
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What are the terms of the Aaron Rodgers trade to the Jets?
Here is the trade package the teams finally agreed on: The Jets acquire QB Aaron Rodgers, plus a 2023 1st-round pick (#15) and a 2023 5th-round selection (#170). In return, the Packers receive a 2023 1st-round pick (#13), a 2023 2nd-round pick (#42), a 2023 6th-round pick (#207) and a conditional 2024 2nd-round pick that will become a 1st-rounder if Rodgers plays at least 65% of the Jets offensive plays in 2023.
In more basic terms, the Packers move up 2 spots in the first round this year, get a 2nd-round pick this year and most likely a 1st-rounder next year for Rodgers, unless he suffers an early injury.
Jets Super Bowl odds after acquiring Aaron Rodgers
The Jets’ Super Bowl odds had already been on the move as expectation grew that they would land Rodgers in the offseason. From opening odds of around 25/1 after this year’s Super Bowl, they had come down to 15/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and the actual trade news shifted the odds only a further point, to 14/1. The Jets have the same Super Bowl odds at DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars sportsbooks too.
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Jets AFC East odds after Aaron Rodgers trade
The Jets are second-favorites to win the AFC East this season with odds of +250 at FanDuel Sportsbook. They still have to compete with the powerhouse Buffalo Bills, who are favorites at +130 odds, with the Miami Dolphins also loaded with talent and on offer at +290, while the New England Patriots the outsiders in the division at +750.
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Packers Super Bowl odds after Aaron Rodgers trade
The Packers were available at 30/1 odds for the Super Bowl back in February, but bigger odds became available as it became more obvious that the former NFL MVP would not be returning to Lambeau Field. The Packers now have 40/1 Super Bowl odds at FanDuel and are 50/1 with DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars.
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Jets 2023 prospects with Aaron Rodgers leading their offense
The Jets should certainly have a powerful football team in 2023, but in the lopsided modern NFL that doesn’t necessarily translate into Super Bowl success. The AFC is loaded with superstar QBs, and Rodgers’ Jets must now get past teams led by Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson among others to even get to the Super Bowl.
That said, they should be a fun team to watch and should be able to mix it with any of the AFC’s top teams. Rodgers should love working with elite receiver Garrett Wilson, along with Corey Davis, his old pal Allen Lazard and fellow free-agent signing Mecole Hardman. He also has a couple of useful tight ends in Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah, and the team has real talent at running back with Breece Hall and Michael Carter. They also now have the 13th pick in the draft, which could possibly be used on another weapon for their new QB.
Packers 2023 prospects with Jordan Love at quarterback
The Packers now can officially be considered in rebuilding mode as they enter a new era, which currently seems to mean the team will be led by former first-round pick Jordan Love, whose arrival in 2020 unsettled Rodgers in the first place. The early signs were not good, but Love did flash potential when replacing the injured Rodgers in a game against the Eagles last season, hitting Christian Watson for a 63-yard TD that Packers fans will hope is a sign of things to come. Other than Watson and their strong RB room, the cupboard is pretty bare on offense for the Pack now, but having retooled their defense in recent seasons (with all those first-round picks Rodgers wanted spent on receivers) the turnaround could be relatively short — as long as Love continues to progress.
Overall in assessing the trade, it looks like the Jets gave up a lot for what could be just one or two seasons of hope in a loaded conference.
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Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our post-Super Bowl offseason coverage as we gear up for the 2023 campaign.
