Ricky Dimon
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Thanksgiving week rolls on with 1 game all by itself on Friday: an AFC West battle between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. Las Vegas has stumbled to a 2-9 record, while Kansas City is 10-1 and looking to stay atop the AFC in its effort to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 3:00 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Raiders vs Chiefs predictions.
Raiders +10.5 alternate spread (+114)
Under 40.5 alternate game total (+114)
Aidan O’Connell Over 215.5 passing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +612
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell racking up plenty of passing yards would obviously work well with a Raiders cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under on a 40.5 total. However, there is no reason why all 3 legs can’t cash. Let’s break it down.
Raiders +10.5 alternate spread (+114)
There is pretty much no way I am giving double-digits with the Chiefs against any opponent these days. They simply aren’t blowing teams out this year. They couldn’t even beat the Carolina Panthers bad last weekend! In fact, Kansas City needed a last-second field goal to get past a lowly Carolina squad by 3. It was yet another escape in a season that has featured a whole host of such nail-biters – many against unspectacular competition. These 2 division rivals already faced each other in Week 8 and K.C. won by just a touchdown. The Chiefs’ defense is solid but not dominant, while Patrick Mahomes and the offense are not up to their usual standards. In a rivalry showdown, for me it feels like another all-to-close Kansas City victory is in the cards.
Under 40.5 alternate game total (+114)
I feel even better about the under in this matchup. If the Raiders are going to keep the game (somewhat) close, it will probably have to be a relatively low-scoring affair. After all, the underdogs won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. They simply don’t have the offensive firepower. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers is an awesome weapon for O’Connell, but running backs Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are questionable for Friday. The good news for Las Vegas is that Kansas City’s offense has underwhelmed in 2024. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has not scored more than 30 points in a game this entire season and it has scored more than 24 in regulation just once in the last 4 contests.
Aidan O’Connell Over 215.5 passing yards (-113)
Kansas City’s defense very good overall, but it has struggled a bit against the pass. It is right in the middle of the pack in passing defense and has surrendered almost 3 times as many touchdowns through the air (15) as interceptions (6). The Chiefs are also tied for the fifth-fewest sacks in the league (21), which is part of the reason why the secondary is having issues. It is being forced to cover pass-catchers for too long. O’Connell should be able to capitalize. He exceeded this number 6 times in 11 games last season and threw for 227 yards against a stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense last month, so the Purdue product knows what he is doing as a starter in this league. The Raiders also figure to be playing from behind most – if not all – of the way on Friday, which means O’Connell will have to air it out. He should be in line for a substantial yardage total.
