Andrew Ortenberg
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First off and most importantly, Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and yours. Week 16 is almost in the books, but before it wraps up we’ve got three great Christmas Day games to look forward to. There’s only one way to properly celebrate Christmas football, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 16 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Raiders vs Chiefs SGP.
Las Vegas Raiders ML (+440)
Isiah Pacheco over 63.5 rushing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +1308
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 13/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Las Vegas Raiders ML (+440)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Raiders on the money line. Las Vegas has showed a ton of fight under interim coach Antonio Pierce, and they certainly aren’t going to roll over here. But this play is more a fade of an overrated Chiefs team than anything else. Kansas City picked up a win over the lowly Patriots last week, but before that they had lost back to back games to the Bills and a Packers team that just barely beat the Panthers.
The Chiefs even lost 24-9 to the Broncos not too long ago, which shows they’ve got a pretty low floor this year. Which is exactly what we’re looking for when targeting a team for a big money line upset. They’ve looked uninspiring all season, mostly because the offense has regressed considerably due to a lack of weapons in the passing game. Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 7.1 yards per attempt and has 13 interceptions this year. Both of those marks are the worst of his whole career.
The situation at receiver is so dire that the team is forced to keep trotting out Kadarius Toney even though he continues to make backbreaking mistake after backbreaking mistake. Last week the Raiders picked up a dominant 63-21 win, and I think people are sleeping on Aidan O’Connell.
The rookie from Purdue was never as bad as the numbers from a few of his first starts suggested, and I’ve mostly been impressed with what I’ve seen. And he’s got Davante Adams at his disposal, which is a lot more than Mahomes can say.
Isiah Pacheco over 63.5 rushing yards (-113)
We get a big odds boost by combining this with the first leg of our same game parlay, but I don’t think it conflicts all that much. In his most recent game Pacheco rushed for 110 yards, and that was in the Chiefs’ loss to the Packers. In his past four contests, Pacheco has rushed for 110, 55, 89 and 66 yards. Kansas City lost the 110 and 89-yard games while they won the 55 and 66-yard games.
So clearly the team’s success isn’t entirely tied to Pacheco’s rushing output like oddsmakers seem to believe. Pacheco has missed the team’s last two games due to a shoulder injury, and they’ve missed him sorely. As such, I expect them to be very grateful to have him back and feed him early and often here.
And he should have some success against a below average Raiders run defense that is giving up 4.3 yards per carry this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been awful the last two weeks in Pacheco’s absence, putting up just 3.2 yards per rush, so I don’t think we’ll have to worry about any competition for carries here. Pacheco should get almost all the touches, and if that’s the case then I very much like our chances of getting to 64 yards.
