Caleb Wilfinger
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The Kansas City Chiefs have been an absolute machine this season, while the Las Vegas Raiders have struggled to get off the ground. Patrick Mahomes looks as dynamic as ever for the Chiefs and his production has shown as Kansas City’s offense is absolutely rolling. Derek Carr and the Raiders got off the shnide with a victory a week ago, but there are still numerous issues to be addressed in Las Vegas.
Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this Monday Night Football battle, so let’s break it all down.
Be sure not to miss any of our picks for Monday Night Football!
NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction
These two teams are extremely familiar with each other, and it’s the Chiefs who typically dominate this rivalry. In fact, Kansas City has won 8 of the last 9 meetings in this matchup. Most of the victories have come in emphatic fashion and the betting market is anticipating a similar result here. Will Mahomes and company prevail in Week 5, or will the Raiders pick up a massive victory on the road? Let’s get into it.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Raiders +7, Chiefs -7.0
Total Points Over/Under: 51.5 points
Money Line Odds: Raiders +275, Chiefs -340
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Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs expert picks
We’ve got 3 standout NFL picks for this week’s Monday Night Football clash between the Raiders and Chiefs.
Raiders vs Chiefs point spread pick: Chiefs -7 (-115)
The Chiefs are rolling on offense, sitting #1 in EPA. They are facing a Raiders defense that really hasn’t stopped anyone yet this season and ranks 24th in EPA on drop-backs, 30th in yards per attempt allowed adjusted by opponent, has allowed the 4th-highest rate of explosive passes and is 28th in pressure rate. That’s not a recipe for success when you are about to go up against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of Kansas City’s offensive weapons.
The Raiders’ defense has let every opponent post at least 23 points and both the Cardinals and Broncos have scored their most points this season against the Raiders. In fact, a Broncos offense that has struggled to score on anybody so far in 2022 was able to pin 23 on Las Vegas. The Broncos have averaged only 13 points per game against 4 opponents not named the Raiders, and we saw how big of a disaster they were against the Colts on Thursday Night Football. On the other side of the ball, Derek Carr has been a big disappointment this year — especially considering that the front office gave him Davante Adams to work with. When you can get this line at -7, it is a max confidence play. I would take the Chiefs a point above that, too, but with more caution.
Be sure to check out our full Raiders vs Chiefs predictions
Raiders vs Chiefs Over/Under totals pick: Over 51.5 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes has historically demolished this particular AFC West rival. In 8 lifetime contests against the Raiders, the Chiefs have averaged 37.3 points. Kansas City has scored fewer than 30 points only once in Mahomes’ career — a 2019 game in which his team scored 28. Once the Chiefs get into the red zone against this Las Vegas defense, they probably won’t need to settle for field goals.
The Chiefs are 7th-best in the NFL in converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Raiders are 3rd-worst in TD percentage allowed inside the 20. That isn’t a fluke, either, as the Raiders defense finished dead last in the NFL last season in surrendering red-zone TDs. Don’t be surprised if Kansas City gets to 35, and the Las Vegas offense should able to do enough work to take us the rest of the way over the total.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 5 action.
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