Ricky Dimon
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Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL playoffs kicks off with the Houston Texans hosting the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday afternoon. Three of the 6 wild-card contests feature a spread within a field goal; this is 1 of those games. Los Angeles (11-6) earned the top wild-card spot in the AFC, while Houston (10-7) emerged victorious in an unspectacular AFC South Division.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 4:30 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Chargers vs Texans predictions.
Chargers -3 (-108)
Ladd McConkey to score a touchdown (+145)
Joe Mixon Over 94.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Parlay odds: +850
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Los Angeles receiver Ladd McConkey finding the endzone would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Chargers. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with tipping Houston running back Joe Mixon to rack up his fair share of yards from scrimmage. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Chargers -3 (-108)
Road teams are rarely favored in the playoffs, but at the same time it isn’t entirely out of the ordinary when the best wild card is going up against the worst division winner. And it’s warranted in this case, because Los Angeles is flying high while Houston is scuffling. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s squad has won 3 games in a row, including 1 of the playoff-bound Denver Broncos. Led by Justin Herbert, the offense is top 10 in passing and #9 in yards per pass attempt (7.6). Even better is that the Bolts boast the best scoring defense in the league at 17.7 points per game allowed. The Texans went 4-5 in their last 5 games and CJ Stroud took a step back from last year, in part due to both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell being injured. This simply looks like a tale of 2 teams going in different directions.
Ladd McConkey to score a touchdown (+145)
There is a lot to like this weekend when it comes to McConkey, who is coming off a stellar regular season and has an extremely favorable matchup with Houston. The former Georgia standout caught 82 of 112 targets for 1149 yards and 7 touchdowns. Five of his 10 TDs came in the final 10 games, including 3 in the last 4. McConkey now faces a Houston defense that surrendered 31 passing TDs. Only the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons gave up more. Count on Herbert targeting his most reliable weapon early and often in the biggest game of the season to date, especially in the red zone.
Joe Mixon Over 94.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Mixon was a disaster in the fantasy football playoffs, but I expect him to bounce back for the real playoffs. He still had a productive regular season on the whole despite an anemic last 4 weeks, amassing 1325 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns. Mixon eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground 7 times and gained at least 25 receiving yards in 6 games. Asking him for a combined 95 yards in round 1 of the postseason should not be too much. The Chargers allowed the sixth-most yards per rushing attempt (4.7) and gave up the most targets to opposing running backs (7.1 per contest). Count on Mixon doing some damage both rushing and receiving on Saturday.
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