The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominated when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV and we have a rerun of that famous game on Sunday Night Football in Week 4. Both teams have 2-1 records heading into the game and sportsbooks have found it hard to separate the teams for the game, which is still being played as scheduled at Raymond James Stadium despite Hurricane Ian striking Florida this week.
The Bucs are the slightest of favorites with most sportsbooks, but PointsBet Sportsbook has the Chiefs -0.5. With Tom Brady taking on Patrick Mahomes again, all eyes will be on this game on Sunday night, and our NFL experts have picks and predictions for this elite matchup, so let’s take a closer look.
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NFL Week 4 Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction
The Chiefs suffered what looked like an extremely avoidable loss to AFC rivals the Indianapolis Colts last week. Andy Reid’s team had opened the year with an easy win over the Cardinals and a much closer contest against the Chargers, but they let a 7-point lead slip to lose 20-17 to the Colts and will be keen to put things right in Florida.
The Buccaneers are also 2-1 after battling through a host of injuries to their receiving corps in the opening weeks of the season. They recorded low-scoring wins over the Cowboys (19-3) and Saints (20-10) before last week’s 14-12 home loss to the Packers, so they are also on the recovery trail this weekend. Defense led the way in the Bucs’ Super Bowl win and that looks their best bet for a repeat this week.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Chiefs +1; Buccaneers +0.5
Total points over/under: 45.5-46 points
Money line odds: Chiefs -105; Buccaneers -107
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Be sure to also check out our other NFL Week 4 predictions articles below.
- Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts predictions
- New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers predictions
- Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
- Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints predictions
- Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers expert picks
We’ve got some great NFL picks for this week’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including spread and total (over/under) selections.
Against the spread pick: Buccaneers +0.5 (-107) over Chiefs
This game being able to be played at Raymond James Stadium was good news for the Bucs, considering the backup location at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis would likely have felt like a home game for the Chiefs. Another positive for Tampa Bay this week is the return of WRs Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones, who have all been able to get on the practice field this week. Their offensive line is a little healthier as well with Donovan Smith returning to action. Those are all vital boosts to a Bucs offense that is 30th in EPA/play after 3 games, and has looked lifeless at times despite their 2-1 overall record.
Defense is certainly the identify of this Bucs team, which will be important this week against a Chiefs offense looking to bounce back after a tough road loss against the Colts. Kansas City is still offense-first, ranking 2nd in EPA per play with a 55.9% success rate on dropbacks. The fact that the Bucs were 2.5-point favorites when this line opened over the summer and they can still just be found as slim home underdogs suggests there’s a hair of value on Tampa Bay, but not enough to have a confident bet.
Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Buccaneers predictions
Over/Under totals pick: Over 45.5 points (-110)
Chiefs vs Buccaneers prop bet pick: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
The Buccaneers defense has been one of the best in football this season. They’re tied for the 3rd-most turnovers and 1st for interceptions, so if anybody can cause havoc for Patrick Mahomes and cause an errant throw, it’s the Tampa Bay defense. Mahomes has thrown only 1 interception this year, and it came last week against the solid Colts defense, so he won’t have it any easier against the Buccaneers this weekend.
Tampa Bay has recorded an interception in all 3 games so far, so as long as their defense continues to put pressure on the quarterback, they have a great chance to pick off Mahomes.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 4 action.
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