Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
At long last, we’ve reached the final game of the NFL Season. Super Bowl 58 is here and we have a dandy of a matchup in store, as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Mahomes, Andy Reid and company are looking to capture their 3rd Super Bowl in 5 seasons but in their way stands the resilient 49ers, having rallied from 2nd half deficits in each of the last 2 weeks to reach this point.
Which of these elite teams will come out on top in Las Vegas? Let’s dive into our Chiefs vs 49ers Same Game Parlay for this Super Bowl 58 showdown that gets started at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday, February 11. Make sure you also keep an eye on our Super Bowl picks with our experts boasting +60.4 units of profit this season!
Chiefs ML (+112)
Under 47.5 (-110)
Brock Purdy over 11.5 rushing yards (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +700
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays is that you can add some contrarian legs to really drive up the odds. That’s the plan here, as backing Brock Purdy having success with his legs goes against taking a Chiefs win and the under. However, it’s highly unlikely that the 49ers get completely shut down even if the other 2 legs do cash, so it’s worth taking a little extra risk for a massive reward. Let’s break it all down.
Kansas City Chiefs ML over San Francisco 49ers (+112)
A lot had to happen for the 49ers to make it to the Super Bowl. Things looked bleak at halftime against the Lions but San Francisco’s on-field leaders, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, played with more intensity in the final two quarters, each making game-breaking plays to gain the lead. However, Purdy’s lack of experience on this stage showed once again in the first half of this game (much like it did against Green Bay the week prior). And now Purdy has to face a much, much better defense in the biggest game of his life.
The Kansas City defense stifled one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses in the AFC title game, as CB L’Jarius Sneed, CB Trent McDuffie, S Mike Edwards and DT Chris Jones are all making a case as the best at their respective positions. I have no doubt in their ability to perform in a big game, something that I do have questions about as it relates to a 49ers defensive unit that was pushed around for 2/3 of last week’s win against Detroit, allowing 442 yards and 28 first downs on the day. And when it doubt, we have the best quarterback on the planet in Mahomes to fall back on. I trust that the Kansas City offense will have success in the biggest moments, and I can’t say the same about San Francisco.
The Chiefs are levels above other teams in the postseason because of their intangibles. Their chemistry, their coaching staff, their experience, their leadership and moxie – no program can touch it, and it’s reminiscent of the NFL’s most recent dynasty over in New England. There’s simply no way we can justify backing Purdy over Mahomes in this spot, nor can we take a 49ers’ team that needs the ball to bounce their way a little too often to find success. The Chiefs won’t make the same mistakes as the Lions did a week ago. And once again, we’ll see Big-Red and Mahomes hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Make sure you check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
Under 47.5 (-110)
While last year’s Super Bowl ended up devolving into a shootout in the second half, I think we’re in for a bit of a different story this time around. Kansas City’s defense has been strong, allowing a combined 10 points in the second half against the Bills and Ravens over the last 2 weeks. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit was also able to shut down a familiar offense to what Kyle Shanahan calls in San Francisco, as the Dolphins were able to put up just 7 total points in their loss to Kansas City in the Wild Card round. This Chiefs defense has been incredibly stingy when it matters most and should be well-prepared for the variety of looks the 49ers will give them.
As for the 49ers, their defense has been an issue in the ground game of late, which is why I believe the Chiefs will look to run the ball early and often and control the time of possession. But San Francisco’s defense has stepped up in the second halves of games this postseason, getting key stops and forcing turnovers when necessary. We already know that both of these teams take plenty of time between plays and like to run the football while employing short passes that function as an extension of the run game. This game script should keep the clock moving in what should be a close game throughout, so don’t be surprised if points come at a premium.
Brock Purdy over 11.5 rushing yards (-110)
Now we move onto the leg that really bumps up the odds. For me, the biggest revelation in the 49ers NFC Championship Game victory was the emergence of Purdy as a quarterback that can make things happen with his legs. On multiple occasions in the 4th quarter, Purdy made massive plays outside of the pocket with his legs when the play broke down, ultimately leading to first downs on key drives for the 49ers.
In a game where the Chiefs will likely be focusing on limiting the downfield passing of San Francisco (much like they did against the Bills and Ravens), there should be opportunities for Purdy to pick up yards with his legs once again. We saw Josh Allen take advantage of this 2 weeks ago and Lamar Jackson didn’t run the ball as often as he probably should’ve last week, but the running lanes were there and he still picked up a few chunk runs. Never would I suggest that Purdy is in the same class as either of those QBs (as a runner or passer), but the opportunities should present themselves regardless.
Find out our Super Bowl MVP best bets, including a +2000 longshot!
