Caleb Wilfinger
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Both the 49ers and Chiefs are coming off disappointing losses a week ago. Kansas City led against Buffalo in the 4th quarter before surrendering a late touchdown, while San Francisco was outclassed by the Falcons in a 28-14 loss. However, the 49ers were dealing with a number of injuries for that game, so their play can be excused. With the AFC West and NFC West standings in flux, this game means a lot for both teams in their pursuit of a division title.
Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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NFL Week 7 Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers prediction
This game could come down to injury luck for the home side. The 49ers have a plethora of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but could be getting as many as half of their starters back this week. That could prove dividends against a Kansas City offense that is explosive, even without the services of Tyreek Hill. As for Kansas City, the Chiefs will be looking to bounce back from a loss to the Bills at home. Let’s get into our expert’s predictions for this matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Chiefs -3.0, 49ers +3.0
Total Points Over/Under: 48.5 points
Money Line Odds: Chiefs -150, 49ers +130
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Be sure to also check some of our other NFL Predictions articles for Week 7 below.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Chiefs and 49ers.
Chiefs vs 49ers point spread pick: 49ers +3 (-110)
There are some major injury concerns for the Niners this week, and I would not recommend betting anything related to this game until closer to game day. LT Trent Williams, DE Nick Bosa, and FS Jimmie Ward all got in a limited practice session on Wednesday, while DT Arik Armstead, RT Mike McGlinchey, CB Charvarius Ward, and S Talanoah Hufanga all were still sidelined. CBs Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett are also still out. Those missing pieces on defense are very concerning when you take into account this week’s opponent. The Chiefs offense leads the NFL in EPA/play and has the 2nd highest success rate on dropbacks. The departure of Tyreek Hill has made them a little less explosive, but it’s also made Patrick Mahomes less reliant on a single player, which in my opinion makes him even more deadly.
Last year defenses played a ton of 2-high shell coverage and schemed Hill out of the game, which handcuffed Mahomes and made them much easier to defend from the top down. Besides Travis Kelce, there’s not one weapon to focus on this season, which allows Mahomes to take what the defense gives him. This is a big reason why KC has the most efficient offense in the league. Kelce has about a 25% target share, but nobody else on the roster is higher than 20%, with eight players recording at least 5 receptions so far this season. I honestly think Mahomes could hit the hot dog vendor if he was open. If the Niners are forced to play backups and third-stringers in the secondary, which relies mostly on a zone coverage scheme, Mahomes and the Chiefs could be in for a big day.
Mahomes has historically eaten up even the best zone coverages, and has the highest QBR against zone this season, making secondary play even more paramount this week. On the other side, Kansas City can be beat on defense, especially their secondary, which is also a little banged up. CB Trent McDuffie is still on IR, CB Rashad Fenton missed practice Wednesday, and SS Bryan Cook was limited. Say what you want about Jimmy G, he’s had success in this spot going 13-3 ATS (81.2%) as an underdog in his career. If San Francisco gets a little injury luck, they are a very live dog in this spot.
Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs 49ers predictions
Chiefs vs 49ers Over/Under totals pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
I’m finding it harder and harder to dig for reasons to bet over this season as overall scoring and quality of play has seemed to dramatically decline. The trend backs up what my eyes are seeing as unders are hitting at an alarming 60% clip through the first 6 weeks. I’m sure at some point that will balance out a bit, but with the public’s propensity to root for points, and the overall decrease in the quality of play, the under should be your default setting when initially hunting for value with totals. I don’t see a ton with this game, mainly because of the unknowns with the 49ers secondary and the overall clutchness of the Chiefs offense.
Patrick Mahomes has been relatively held in check on early downs this season, at least by his standard, but he’s still the best and most efficient QB in the league on 3rd and 4th downs this season, which usually equates to points. You’re always paying a Mahomes tax when betting on the Chiefs or the over, and in this economy, it’s just not something we can afford until further notice.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers expert predictions
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