Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
We’ve got a pretty high-profile matchup on our hands on Christmas Day in Week 17 of the NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs are traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a showdown that could go a long way to determining the pecking order in the AFC playoff picture. The Chiefs are looking to lock up the top seed in the AFC for yet another year, while the Steelers are in the thick of the AFC North race and could really use a win over Kansas City to boost their standing against the Baltimore Ravens following last week’s results.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 1:05 pm ET on Netflix. Also be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Steelers predictions.
Steelers ML (+130)
Under 43.5 (-104)
Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+155)
Parlay odds: +765
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay is that all of its components can be correlated, if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Steelers running back Najee Harris finding success would work well with Pittsburgh winning the game. Ultimately, I like the value that this adds to our SGP so let’s break down each of these three legs.
Steelers ML (+130)
Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog speaks for itself and even after losing back-to-back games, we should see a spirited effort from the Steelers to give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs all they can handle in this one. Despite now being 14-1, this Kansas City team continues to look vulnerable and given that they rank bottom 10 in passing yards per attempt while putting up the 2nd-fewest yards per carry, the Steelers elite defense (9th in success rate allowed, 7th in EPA per play) is more than capable of keeping the Chiefs in check. Pittsburgh has recorded the 3rd-most interceptions this season (SumerSports) and should give Mahomes all he can handle.
While the Steelers offense has been extremely poor over the last couple of weeks, those issues in the passing game should be boosted by the return of top wide receiver George Pickens – who is expected to play. If Pickens ends up returning to the lineup, this adds another dimension to Pittsburgh’s passing attack and should inject more life into Russell Wilson and this otherwise anemic offense. Wilson has played very clean football this season and with the 2-headed rushing attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren stepping up, the Steelers should be able to move the chains on a semi-consistent basis, even against a stout Kansas City defense. This should be a close game and taking on the Super Bowl champs is always a daunting prospect, but getting Pittsburgh as a home underdog in this spot feels too good to pass up.
Under 43.5 (-104)
Defense is typically full display in games involving these teams, and that should be the case once again on Wednesday. Both rushing attacks are averaging just 4 yards per carry on the ground, which is tied for the 2nd-fewest in the NFL. It certainly doesn’t help the Steelers struggling offense that Kansas City has held each of its last 4 opponents to just 19 points or fewer, while Pittsburgh’s stout defense has given up the 4th-fewest points in the AFC. While George Pickens’ potential return would be a boost for the Steelers’ offense, the wide receiver is unlikely to be at 100% if he does suit up, and Andy Reid is likely to create a plan to take him out of the game given Pittsburgh’s clear struggles while he has been out. The Chiefs continue to be lackluster on offense and we should see another contest featuring these teams where defense is the name of the game.
Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer (+155)
It hasn’t been a perfect season for Najee Harris, but he has been able to rack up 5 touchdowns over the last 10 games. After just 15 total rushing attempts over the past 2 contests due to Pittsburgh being in some negative game scripts, Harris should get the ball early and often on Christmas Day. It also helps matters that Pittsburgh is finally facing an opponent that rarely blows teams out. With a competitive contest expected from start to finish, Harris will almost certainly get a lot of touches, especially since the best defense against Kansas City’s offense is to keep the clock moving and keep Mahomes off the field as long as possible. This price is too good to pass up, so let’s take Harris to find the end zone.
