The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders wrap up their respective 2022 NFL regular seasons with this Saturday matchup at Allegiant Stadium. The Chiefs can take a step toward securing the #1 seed in the AFC depending on what happens with the suspended Bills vs Bengals game. The Raiders have already been eliminated from postseason contention, but will be hoping for another positive performance from quarterback Jarrett Stidham as they continue planning for the future. Who will come out on top in this rivalry game? Our expert has their picks, predictions and best bets for this Chiefs vs Raiders matchup.
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NFL Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders expert predictions
There’s no question that the Chiefs are the better team out of these two, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be highly motivated to light it up and break the passing record. However, this Raiders team is often able to take it to Kansas City each time they face off, and after what we saw Las Vegas do against a stingy 49ers defense last week, there’s every chance that this game winds up being closer than people expect.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Chiefs -9, Raiders +9
Total Points Over/Under: 52.5 points
Money Line Odds:Chiefs -425, Raiders +340
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Chiefs and Raiders.
Chiefs vs Raiders point spread pick: Raiders +9 (-110)
There are some unique circumstances surrounding the result of this game and how it impacts the top of the AFC playoff picture. Depending on how the NFL handles the resumption of Monday night’s postponed game between the Bills and Bengals, Buffalo might forfeit their inside track to the top seed in the AFC, which would open the door for Kansas City this weekend. Regardless, the Chiefs still have a big motivational edge in this game with a potential first-round bye up for grabs if they can beat their division rival. This game went down to the wire when these teams last squared off in Week 5 at Arrowhead, with a failed 2-point conversion by the Raiders in the final minutes serving as the deciding play. Since then, Vegas has continued to sputter down the stretch, prompting the recent QB switch from Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham. Stidham’s numbers were pretty good in his debut on Sunday against a much better 49ers defense, and I can see him having similar success against a weaker Kansas City secondary and pass rush this week.
The Chiefs were 7.5-point favorites at home in this exact same matchup 12 weeks ago, which would imply around a 5-point favorite on a neutral field, and around a field goal favorite on the road at Allegiant Stadium. With the number currently sitting at 9.5, that would imply around a 6-point downgrade in the market from Carr to Stidham if all other variables between these teams are relatively equal since their last matchup in Week 5. That seems a bit overstated to me considering how comfortable Stidham looked in Josh McDaniels’ offense, which makes sense considering the familiarity between them after 2 seasons together in New England. I would make Carr at least a 3-point upgrade over Stidham, but no more than 4, so anything north of a touchdown with the Raiders seems to be fair value to me.
Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Raiders predictions
Chiefs vs Raiders Over/Under totals pick: Over 52.5 (-105)
The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams with an average combined score of 60.9 in those games. Considering 3 of those 5 games had a total close higher than 53, it seems like we are getting a relatively fair price here at 52.5. The likely reason for the dip is the Raiders’ benching of Derek Carr, with Jarrett Stidham set to make his 2nd start of the season this week under center. While on the surface that might seem like a downgrade to the offense, I’m not so sure I agree with that narrative after watching Stidham’s performance against the 49ers on Sunday. Stidham had the 2nd-highest EPA+CPOE of any QB last week and the highest aDOT against one of the best defenses in the NFL. He seemed to look at ease running Josh McDaniels’ offense, which makes sense if you consider those two have spent the prior 2 seasons together in New England. It looks like McDaniels has also gotten full buy-in on the Stidham move from star WR Davante Adams, who played his tail off on Sunday and made one of the best catches I’ve seen all season on the Raiders’ final drive. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in 4 of the last 5 games, and if Vegas can eclipse that mark this week, that means Kansas City only has to reach 28 in order for this over to hit, which is below their season average of 29.1 points per game.
There’s nothing more that needs to be said about Patrick Mahomes besides this being a chance for him to lock up the MVP award in front of a national audience. He also needs 430 passing yards to set the NFL single-season record. Mahomes has averaged 323 passing yards against the Raiders since 2019, so his prop number should receive strong consideration this week, especially if it’s below 300. The Raiders’ defense ranked dead last in EPA/play last week against Brock Purdy, allowing 37 points and an overall success rate of almost 60%. I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs to put up similar numbers in this game.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders expert predictions
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