These teams couldn’t be further apart at this stage in the season. Despite losing a week ago, Kansas City is one of the top teams in football, and for good reason. The same can’t be said of the Denver Broncos, who continue to lose close, one-score games thanks to great performances from their defense and awful efforts from a broken offense. This game should be no different on paper, but it is a divisional rivalry game, so surprises can happen. Our expert has odds and predictions for this intriguing AFC matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos expert predictions
It’s not often that the Chiefs lose 3 times in a row to the same team, but that’s exactly what happened last week in a defeat to the Bengals. This now leaves Kansas City in a position of vulnerability when it comes to the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs need to win out in order to grab the all-important No. 1 seed prior to the postseason. On the other side, the season can’t end soon enough for the Broncos, who are struggling mightily to score. Our expert seems to think Kansas City will get back on track so let’s dive into his predictions.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Chiefs -9.5, Broncos +9.5
Total Points Over/Under: 43.5 points
Money Line Odds: Chiefs -430, Broncos +350
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this clash between the Chiefs and Broncos
Chiefs vs Broncos point spread pick: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Despite the fact that both of these teams lost on Sunday, I have far more reason to trust the Chiefs than the Broncos. These are 2 teams heading in completely opposite directions, and it couldn’t be more apparent on the field. Denver has 1 of the worst offenses in football by any standard or advanced metric you look at, ranking dead last in scoring offense at just 13.7 points per game. That’s absolutely putrid and won’t help against a Chiefs team that is on the complete opposite of that spectrum. To keep up with Kansas City, Denver will have to score via the explosive passing play, which actually is a weakness for a middling Chiefs defense. However, don’t expect the Broncos to see much success because Russell Wilson is completely hapless. He has tossed just 8 touchdown passes through 12 games this season.
Sure, Denver is at home, but that hasn’t bothered Patrick Mahomes before. Mahomes is a perfect 9-0 in his career against the Broncos, and I don’t expect that to change this week. The Chiefs quarterback is 56% against the spread as a single-digit favorite and should only need to put up 24 points or so to comfortably cover this number. Considering the manner in which the Chiefs just lost to the Bengals, a bounce-back spot is in order, as Mahomes is 59% against the spread following a loss. With Kansas City averaging 6.5 yards per play and nearly 30 points per game on the season, tallying 3 touchdowns is well within reason. And as long as Mahomes continues his career-long streak of good performances against this division foe, the Chiefs should cruise to a victory of 10+ points.
Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Broncos predictions
Chiefs vs Broncos Over/Under totals pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
The Broncos have been printing money this season when it comes to the under, and it’s easy to see why. Denver’s defense is one of the best in football, allowing just 17 points per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. With the 6th best defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, Denver’s advanced metrics back up those raw numbers as well. And on the other side, we know what we’re not getting from Wilson and this Broncos offense. This passing game won’t be able to burn a Kansas City defense that is susceptible to the explosive pass, and the Chiefs should be able to focus on stopping the run and getting pressure on Wilson. And since Denver isn’t likely to score more than 14 points in this game, it’s hard to expect Kansas City scores 30+ points on a very stingy defense that is still playing with pride late in the season. The Chiefs can win comfortably and this game can still go under this number.
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