JutPicks
Show Bio
Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season is listed in my bio. On the year, I recorded 150 wins and 107 losses for a gain of +31 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Saturday.
Check out our picks for all of today’s MLB games!
Luis Severino (NYY) under 4.5 Ks (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This line opened at 5.5 strikeouts, and everybody seemed to be on it. 4.5 strikeouts is worth a unit for me, especially with the circumstances. Severino has not started a meaningful game since 2019. He has dealt with numerous shoulder and arm injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Severino may have lost a step in terms of his strikeout ability. In 6.2 innings pitched, he threw 4 batters out and allowed 7 earned runs.
His opponent today, the Boston Red Sox, got to CY Young favorite, Gerrit Cole early. Cole allowed 3 runs in the first inning and only struck out 3 batters. This Red Sox offense is potent, and I would not be surprised to see them get on Severino early. News just broke that Severino will only pitch 70 pitches maximum today. With New York smartly limiting their starter, I do not see him cashing this prop.
Miles Mikolas (STL) under 4.5 Ks (-140)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Miles Mikolas makes his season debut against a familiar foe, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mikolas missed all of the 2020 season and most of their 2021 season due to an injury in his throwing arm. In 44.2 innings pitched, the 33-year-old faced 186 batters and struck out 31 for a strikeout rate of 16%. Mikolas has never been a strikeout kind of guy. His K rate was below 20% in his last fully healthy season.
Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates ranked 7th-best in strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers. It is a long season, so I do not expect the Cardinals to push Mikolas more than 5 innings today or over 80 pitches.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Sonny Gray (MIN) over 4.5 Ks (-152)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Today, Sonny Gray makes his debut for the Minnesota Twins against the Seattle Mariners. Gray spent his last 3 seasons with the Cincinnati Reds and was serviceable. In 26 starts last season, he eclipsed 5 strikeouts in 21 of those starts.
Seattle overhauled their starting lineup and bought in free agents Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker from the National League. Gray does not have too much experience against the current lineup of the Mariners, but they had a 25% K rate against right-handed pitchers last season.
Gray looked phenomenal in his last Spring Training start. He pitched 4 perfect innings and struck out 6 batters. Look for Gray to build on that dominant stint against a poor Mariners lineup.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
