Texas Tech -1 over Duke (-110)
Winning this bet requires Duke losing — aka Coach K’s final game on the sideline. That is a dangerous proposition if you buy into any referee-based conspiracy theories. I cannot factor that in, though; this is purely a matchup-based handicap.
Quite simply, Duke has not seen a defense like Texas Tech’s all season. Per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, Gonzaga is the only Duke opponent to rank inside the top 30 nationally (the Zags sit 9th). Texas Tech is the country’s best defense, and you simply cannot get easy baskets in the paint against this group.
Narrowing scope more, the Blue Devils have only faced 4 teams that rank inside the top 100 in defensive turnover rate: Florida State, Miami (FL), South Carolina St., and Cal St. Fullerton. Duke went just 4-2 straight up and 2-4 against the spread against them.
The highest of that bunch was Florida State at 39th. Texas Tech sits at 11th nationally. Duke’s ball security is not a huge concern, but stylistically this is a foe that could disrupt the Blue Devils’ rhythm.
The Red Raiders’ biggest concern is their offense, which can go through extended droughts at times. Duke needs to win with defense, but that has not been viable recently. Filtering Bart Torvik’s site since March 1, Duke’s defense ranks a staggeringly bad 191st nationally (seven game sample). Even Texas Tech can score against a unit that soft.
I do not want to go too high with this line. Above -1 I would consider simply taking the money line. However, -1 is available everywhere as I write this — so for now that’s the pick.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Duke Blue Devils
Arizona vs Houston first half Under 68.5 (-112)
Arizona fans are breathing a heavy sigh of relief after surviving a 10-round heavyweight bout with TCU in the round of 32. The gritty Horned Frogs racked up 20 offensive rebounds against Arizona’s undisciplined box outs. Only some heroics from Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko nudged the top-seeded Wildcats to the Sweet 16.
Houston is structured similarly to TCU, especially in its dominance on the offensive glass. As such, Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd may need to revise his strategy somewhat. The Wildcats struggled most against TCU when they went small, playing just one of Koloko, Oumar Ballo, and Azuolas Tubelis. That speedy lineup helps Arizona’s transition attack, but it exposes the backboard to Houston’s physical onslaught.
As a result, I expect to see a two-big lineup almost exclusively. Tubelis has struggled lately, so that means a lot more of Ballo and Koloko together. Both are more mobile than you might expect for guys their size, but it still limits Arizona’s ability to surge down the floor consistently.
For its part, Houston will try to turn this game into a grinding, half-court affair. Letting Arizona get out and run is akin to a death wish, and UH head coach Kelvin Sampson is plenty smart enough to realize that.
Between Arizona’s lineup adjustments and Houston’s intentional draining of the tempo, I like the under on this game. Overtime and late free-throws scare me, though, so I will keep my bet to just the first half. I would take it down to 67.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats
Providence +7.5 over Kansas (-110)
I strive to have some very clear numerical and/or matchup reasoning behind all of my picks. I want to be able to point to clear advantages that comprise the bulk of my handicap.
With Providence, that’s difficult to do. Shot Quality scored both of Providence’s opening weekend games as losses – yes that includes the 28-point demolition of Richmond. As it turns out, it helps when the opponent shoots 1-for-22 from beyond the arc and 8-for-21 from the free-throw line! I still can’t believe those numbers from the Spiders!
This wager is more of a gut feel around how this Providence team functions. The Friars are old (average age of their starters is north of 23 years old!), are extremely well-coached (Ed Cooley might win National Coach of the Year), and are tough as nails. Even against an outstanding foe like Kansas, it is hard for me to envision this team ending its season by getting blasted.
Granted, the Friars have been blown out 3 times this year. More often than not, though, these tenacious veterans find ways to hang around against whomever they are playing — forcing a close game late.
That is how I envision this one playing out. The Friars’ experience and physicality should serve them well in this matchup, and Kansas just struggled with another Big East foe by narrowly edging an extremely short-handed Creighton.
I would take this at +7 even if it ticks down, but no lower than that.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Providence Friars vs Kansas Jayhawks
Miami -2.5 over Iowa State (-110)
After that brief “gut-influenced” Providence best bet, it’s nice to return to our regularly scheduled, matchup-based programming. This line has already been on the move, flipping from Iowa State -1 as an early opener at a couple of books to Miami -2.5 across the market now.
Lo and behold, I think the market has it right!
The Hurricanes are a nightmare matchup for Iowa State’s pressure-centric man-to-man. Miami has three fantastic guards in Charlie Moore, Kam McGusty, and Isaiah Wong. All three of those guys take excellent care of the ball and can punish over-extended defenses by knifing into gaps and finishing inside.
Iowa State ranks 4th nationally in defensive turnover rate, demonstrating its ability to make foes uncomfortable. Miami, however, is 6th nationally in offensive TO rate, evidencing the Hurricanes’ ball security despite playing relatively up-tempo. Taking care of the rock is a clear emphasis for Miami, and unlike Wisconsin, Iowa State’s previous opponent, Jim Larranaga’s squad will generate easy baskets inside when it defeats the Cyclones’ pressure.
Iowa State’s offense is already a struggle. If you take away easy buckets generated by steals, it becomes even more dire. Miami is nowhere near an iron curtain defensively, but against the mid-range jumper-happy Cyclones, the ‘Canes can put up some resistance.
I know this number has already climbed some, so I doubt it rises much further. Still, I would be comfortable taking this at -3 if we see some late money come in near game time.
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