Ricky Dimon
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Kansas -2 1H over UNC
Ding dong! The wicked witch is dead!
North Carolina slayed every demon imaginable on Saturday night, erasing a 7-point second half deficit against arch rival Duke to unceremoniously shove the legendary Mike Krzyzewski into retirement. The Tar Heels won the season series with the Blue Devils in the coaching titan’s final campaign, and I am 100% certain they will never let Duke fans forget it.
Is there some hangover effect to that massive victory? I don’t fully buy that narrative, but when you add it to the matchup concerns I’m willing to lock in the Jayhawks first-half price here.
Kansas’ David McCormack came out like a man possessed against Villanova, dominating the opening minutes and forcing the Wildcats to play zone for the first time in ages. Against the Heels he can have a similar bonanza in the paint.
I am certainly not suggesting it will be a picnic. Armando Bacot is one of the best big men in the entire country. His ridiculous rebounding pace (43 in the last two games) may continue, but the Heels’ steadfast interior stalwart will have to battle through a concerning ankle injury to get there.
Even Bacot himself is adamant that he will play, but it’s ludicrous to think he will be full strength. Watching him limp down the press conference stairs on Saturday night certainly suggested that tonight will be tough for him.
McCormack should be able to score early against Bacot, and that opens the rest of the court up for Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, and Jalen Wilson. Agbaji started 6-for-6 from deep on Saturday and he raved about his affinity for shooting in the Caesars Superdome in the postgame press conference. Head coach Bill Self affirmed that comfort level for his entire team, so I expect the Jayhawks to come out with fury once again.
I would bet this to -3. Duke needed a small miracle to cover the first-half line against these same Tar Heels, but they were up six with a minute left. The game should ultimately be a barnburner, but I think the Jayhawks get off to a strong start in the opening stanza.
North Carolina vs Kansas Over 152
After Saturday night, this matchup is a relief for Kansas. Villanova dragged the Jayhawks into a slow crawl in the semifinal game, forcing them into their slowest game since February of 2016 (!!).
KU's 58 possessions vs. Villanova was the slowest-tempo game for the Jayhawks since 2016.
And they still scored 81 points.
— Jesse Newell (@jessenewell) April 3, 2022
That game landed at 58 possessions. Do not expect Kansas to be content playing another grinder. When handicapping, the Weave and I call this a “slingshot effect” game.
Heading into a title game matchup with free-wheeling North Carolina, the Jayhawks should be more than willing to get into a track meet. The Heels rank 40th nationally in tempo per KenPom, providing Kansas a refreshing respite from the crawl-ball Wildcats.
Trying to decipher whether each team will score efficiently is a more dangerous challenge, but these two squads were clearly comfortable in the Superdome on Saturday night. They combined to go 23-for-50 (46%) from beyond the arc, underscoring their ability to shoot in the cavernous New Orleans venue.
Pace is the most important variable in an over/under handicap, and I think this one turns into an up-and-down affair. Add in a sprinkling of shot-making, and I fully believe we will see plenty of points tonight. Though this total has crept down from an opener of 153, I would bet this up to 154. Hopefully the basketball gods will give us the shootout we deserve.
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