Yale Bulldogs vs Harvard Crimson over 139.5 points (-106)
Line available with FanDuel and Caesars at time of publishing.
How nice is it to have Ivy League hoops back, folks? Maybe it’s just me, but these squads play some entertaining basketball – I missed them last year!
Of course, the first game between Harvard and Yale was not the model of Ivy basketball. These two archrivals just played each other on Saturday, and that meeting had just 113 points. It might seem insane to back the over after a performance like that… and I might be insane. But a few indicators from that matchup have me optimistic about zagging the other way.
That game had 69 possessions, a solid amount for two of the premier Ivy squads. KenPom.com projects this one for 70 possessions, which should suffice for an OVER. Also of note: the two teams combined to shoot an abysmal 6-for-32 from deep in that first contest. Both squads have more competent shooters than that would indicate, and regression should certainly aid our cause here.
Additionally, the matchup history between these two points to the over. Prior to Saturday’s clash, the previous four Harvard-Yale games had gone over, doing so by a staggering average of 25.5 points per game. That doesn’t even include any overtimes! Following Saturday’s slugfest, a fireworks display could be on the horizon.
SMU Mustangs +7.5 over Houston Cougars (-115)
Line available with FanDuel and Westgate at time of publishing.
Like that Harvard/Yale over, this one might be a bit frightening to lock in. Houston has been a juggernaut in league play; the Cougars are currently undefeated against American foes. However, they have not played a tough schedule at all, and they are just 5-4 against the spread in league play.
The matchup could also be tough for the Cougars. Their physical, swarming defense is one of the country’s elite help units, but it can be unlocked by dribble penetration. To that end, SMU’s Kendric Davis is one of the best maestros in the entire country.
The 5’11” jitterbug leads the country in assist rate, getting wherever he wants on the floor and scoring himself or generating open looks for his teammates. Houston essentially plays just three guards, so Kyler Edwards, Jamal Shead, and Taze Moore will have their hands full chasing Davis around while also trying to lead the offense. It’s not just Davis, either. Michael Weathers is a terrific downhill driver, so SMU has one-on-one options against the disciplined Cougar defense.
The cause for alarm for SMU is on the defensive glass. The Mustangs have the bodies to compete with Houston’s relentless offensive rebounding, but they rank just 225th in the country in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom. If they repeatedly allow Houston to get second and third shots, then they’ll be in trouble.
Ultimately, this is a do-or-die game for SMU. A fringe bubble team, the Mustangs cannot assemble a true at-large case without a win over Houston. I think we see a home run effort. I don’t have a ton of leeway on this strike – anything past +6 is dicey against such a formidable foe.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Cougars vs SMU Mustangs
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Florida State Seminoles under 130.5 points (-110)
Line generally available at time of publishing.
The wheels have completely come off for Florida State. Injuries have ravaged the roster, and the Seminoles have now dropped 4 consecutive games – 2 of which were at home.
Those injuries have really robbed the ‘Noles of offensive weapons. Malik Osborne was the most efficient player on the team, an inside-out threat that also produced second shot opportunities via offensive rebounds. He is out for the season. Fellow senior Anthony Polite, a key shooter and playmaker, just had wrist surgery as well.
The depleted FSU roster must now score against a grinding, physical Pitt squad. The Panthers have been awful this year (sorry, there’s no way around it), but they do compete defensively and force opponents to score in the half-court.
Without Osborne and Polite, FSU’s already-dire perimeter shooting situation gets even worse. The Seminoles are 12th in the ACC in 3-point attempt rate and 14th in 3-point percentage. That’s a serious issue against Pitt, who packs the paint and forces opponents to shoot over the top.
This is Pitt’s 4th game in 8 days, and the already-crawling Panthers will inevitably be looking to slow the pace to a halt. They are coming off a painful 56-possession game against Virginia Tech, underscoring just how slowly they are content to play.
A young FSU team will surely look to push in transition, and their length could bother Pitt’s thin backcourt, but the Panthers know they cannot run with this team.
I have barely mentioned Pitt’s offense in this handicap. That’s by design – it stinks. The Panthers did hit shots in both games against Virginia Tech, but that’s way out of the ordinary, and FSU’s athletic defense will cause issues.
With a combination of Pitt’s slower tempo, FSU’s depleted offensive firepower, and matchup issues on both sides, the under looks quite strong here.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Pittsburgh Panthers vs Florida State Seminoles
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