It has arrived, folks! The NCAA Tournament is upon us, with 32 glorious games looming on Thursday and Friday alone. The normal format is back – no single-site bubble, games all over the country.
With about 24 hours under our belts to process the bracket, it’s time to take a high-level look at the field. Who is most likely to go on a run to the Final Four? More importantly, who offers the most value to do so? This is a deep dive into Final Four futures, region by region.
Fear not – I’ll have several first round game picks coming on Wednesday night as well.
Odds via FanDuel – shop around, though! There’s value to be had.
West
Top Dogs: Gonzaga -140, Duke +460, Texas Tech +550
Dark Horses: Arkansas +1400, UConn +1900, Alabama +2400, Michigan State +4800
It’s somewhat surprising to see the Bulldogs as an odds-on favorite at this point. It’s especially so given that two of the three teams who beat the Zags – Alabama and Duke – reside in the West with them.
Last year’s undefeated juggernaut could be had for -190 to win the West. Those Bulldogs steamrolled their way to the Final Four, winning games by 43, 16, 18, and 19 points. I love this year’s team and will pick them to win the region, but the price gives me some pause.
Duke and Texas Tech have both seen Gonzaga this year. As mentioned, Duke won (out west in Vegas, too), and for their part, the Red Raiders gave Gonzaga a scare as well. Texas Tech’s ability to shut down the paint made the Zags’ life difficult. The Blue Devils’ disastrous defense down the stretch alarms me, and I fear the young roster will feel the weight of Coach K’s impending final game.
Arkansas has long been a team generating significant buzz as a Final Four sleeper. That momentum has slowed considering the Razorbacks’ difficult draw, and getting blasted by Texas A&M certainly was alarming.
The Razorbacks’ SEC counterpart, Alabama, has a sky-high ceiling when threes go in, but that’s a rarity with this team. I cannot see them being consistent enough to win four (or even three) games in a row against quality competition.
If we’re going to see a play-in winner go from Dayton to New Orleans, it’s probably from this region with Rutgers (more likely) or Notre Dame (less likely). The Scarlet Knights have won multiple tough games this season, and they won four Q1 games in a row in February. It’s possible.
Recommendation: Gonzaga -140 if you can stomach the juice, Texas Tech +550 if you prefer the plus money.
South
Top Dogs: Arizona +145, Villanova +390, Tennessee +500
Dark Horses: Houston +600, Illinois +1000, Michigan +2300, Loyola-Chicago +3800, Colorado State +6000
The elephant in the room here is Kerr Kriisa’s ankle. If you think the injury is severe – and it looks gruesome – then perhaps Arizona is mis-priced as the heavy favorite. Granted, the Wildcats beat UCLA without him, but that was one NCAA Tournament-caliber victory. Can they string together four and get to New Orleans?
Also looming over that line: Both Tennessee and Illinois are quite familiar with these Wildcats. The Vols knocked off Arizona in Knoxville, while Illinois nearly toppled the ‘Cats in Champaign. Either one would be a challenging matchup without Kriisa. The Vols, in particular, are firing on all cylinders right now, and their guard trio of Kennedy Chandler, Santiago Vescovi, and Zakai Zeigler is difficult to corral for a full 40 minutes.
Houston is the wild card here. Beloved by all predictive metrics, Houston earned its first win over an at-large team in the AAC Tournament final. That was the first one! On Selection Sunday! The Cougars are tough, physical, and smart, but they are also wildly unproven.
The two-seed here, Villanova, is a tough nut to crack. These Wildcats have a high floor because of their tremendous ball security and sound defensive principles. However, they lack the future NBA Draft picks that Jay Wright’s best teams have had. Ultimately, I’m bearish on them to make the Final Four. They dismantled Tennesee early in the season, but the young Vols have improved dramatically since then.
The long-shot I like here: the Ramblers! Their draw is favorable – Ohio State is floundering, Villanova is mortal – and most of this roster has experience winning in March.
Recommendation: Tennessee +500, sprinkle on Loyola-Chicago +3800
Midwest
Top Dogs: Kansas +200, Auburn +260, Iowa +390
Dark Horses: Wisconsin +1100, LSU +1300, USC +2700, Providence +3500
I’ll come right out and say it: this region is soft. Wisconsin and Providence’s predictive rankings make them vulnerable as the 3- and 4-seed, respectively. Auburn did not impress late in the year and they have been a different team away from Auburn Arena. And LSU, the 6-seed, just fired its coach.
That opens the draw up for Kansas and Iowa. Both squads just impressed by claiming conference tournament championships, and they should have rabid fan support in Chicago (should they make it). The Friars could have something to say about it, and I would understand backing a 4-seed at 35/1, but I cannot bring myself to do it.
The main odds here do not appeal to me much. But I am intrigued by a flier: the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State at 120/1. Eric Henderson’s group is the best three-point shooting team in the country, and if they really catch fire for a few games, this ticket could have immense value. This SDSU squad is better than the Oral Roberts team that made the Sweet 16 – you just never know with these lethal offenses.
Recommendation: Pass, save for a small flier on South Dakota State +12000
East
Top Dogs: Kentucky +240, Baylor +240, UCLA +500, Purdue +550
Dark Horses: Texas +1000, Saint Mary’s +2000, North Carolina +2000, Virginia Tech +2900, Murray State +6000
The only region where the 1-seed does not have the shortest odds, the East, looks wide open at the top. Baylor has the feel of Michigan from last season – #1 in the bottom left corner of the bracket, dealing with key injuries, viewed as the most vulnerable top seed.
Kentucky’s brick-tastic performance in the SEC Tournament (2-for-20 from beyond the arc) left some folks sour on Big Blue’s postseason prognosis. In my eyes, that’s a mistake.
The ceiling on this Kentucky team is still as high as anyone’s in the country. The pummeling of Kansas at Kansas is one of the most impressive performances of the year. Losing in the semifinals gives Kentucky’s banged up lineup more time to get healthy, making it more likely they can hit that ceiling in the NCAA Tournament.
UCLA is capable of a run, but I have been lower than consensus on the Bruins for most of the season. I do not trust Purdue’s defense whatsoever. Baylor is excellent – I am not writing them off as a “vulnerable 1-seed” solely due to injuries – but they strike me as more of a “high floor” team rather than a Final Four squad.
Meanwhile, Murray State intrigues me quite a bit. The Racers get a San Francisco squad in the first round that may not be full strength. After that, they take on Kentucky, and I’d be thrilled getting one of the two through to the Sweet 16. Given that, the price is too good to ignore.
Recommendation: Kentucky +240, small sprinkle on Murray State +6000
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