Ricky Dimon
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The final weekend of Wimbledon is upon us. It begins with the women’s singles championship match on Saturday afternoon before the men take center stage on Sunday. A surprise title winner is guaranteed to emerge on the women’s side, as Jasmine Paolini and Barbora Krejcikova are set to square off at the All-England Club. Krejcikova is already a Grand Slam champ and Paolini recently played in the French Open final, but prior to this summer, neither woman had ever been a factor on grass. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made for the Paolini vs Krejcikova women’s singles final.
Jasmine Paolini ML over Barbora Krejcikova (+125)
This is an unexpected championship matchup between 2 surprising finalists. It’s a tossup in reality; whoever was priced as the underdog was always going to have the value. I’m happy it’s Paolini. The world #7 has been outstanding in 2024 and what’s impressive is that she has been flourishing on every single surface. She finished runner-up on the clay courts of Roland Garros a month ago, finds herself in another Grand Slam final on grass and won the biggest title of her career on the hard courts of Dubai back in February.
Still on fire, Paolini’s run at the All-England Club includes straight-set defeats of 2019 U.S. Open champion Bianca Andreescu and an in-form Emma Navarro (Navarro had previously destroyed both Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff). Krejcikova is the favorite likely because she has already won a major (2021 French Open) and is thought to be slightly more comfortable on grass. Still, the 28-year-old has won only 19 matches in her career on the lawns compared to 230 on clay.
Jasmine Paolini vs Barbora Krejcikova Over 22.5 games (-110)
Needless to say, if I see this as close to a tossup then I also don’t anticipate it being won easily on either side. Both women have been playing great tennis this fortnight, but neither one is anything close to dominant. Paolini has survived a pair of marathons so far (against Madison Keys in the fourth round and Donna Vekic in the semis) and 2 other matches required a tiebreaker. Krejcikova has twice been tested in 3 sets and 2 other times she got the job done in a second-set tiebreaker. It also can’t be overstated that the pressure of a Grand Slam final is looming over Centre Court on Saturday. Whoever is in the lead and close to the finish line probably won’t have an easy time sealing the deal.
Jasmine Paolini Over 3.5 service breaks vs Barbora Krejcikova (-120)
This last bet obviously correlates perfectly with the first 2. If Paolini wins and wins a long match, it probably means she is breaking serve with frequency. That’s exactly what the 5’4’’ Italian has been doing throughout these Championships. She leads the women’s tournament with 31 breaks, averaging 5.17 breaks per match and 2.21 breaks per set. Yes, she is breaking serve more than 4 times even in 2-set matches. It is true that Krejcikova is losing her serve a modest 1.21 times per set so far at Wimbledon, but that number doesn’t offset Paolini’s returning statistics. It’s also worth noting that Krejcikova has not yet run into a returner of Paolini’s caliber. The Czech will likely struggle more than usual holding her serve on Saturday.
