Welcome to Wild Card weekend. The grind of the regular season is over and it’s now a sprint to the finish with just 13 NFL games left. Before trying to find value on the board this week, I think it’s important to take inventory with where you stand in the futures market, as those positions will have an impact on how I evaluate the playoff games individually. If you’ve been following our “Back to the Futures” column all season, your portfolio might look something like this:
To win the Super Bowl:
Cardinals +4400 (1u)
Chiefs +1175 (1u)
Packers +875 (1u)
To win the AFC:
Titans +875 (1u)
Chiefs +700 (0.5u)
To win the NFC:
Packers +440 (1u)
49ers +1500 (0.5u)
Based on how this portfolio is structured, the best case scenario in the AFC would be a Chiefs/Titans matchup on Championship Sunday. If that scenario occurs, I likely won’t risk anything further on that game individually.
In the NFC, I already hedged a bit with my Cardinals position earlier this season by betting the Rams to win the NFC West, and I’m strongly considering backing Los Angeles again this week as another passive hedge. If San Francisco can beat Dallas, they would play the Packers in the divisional round, setting up another potential hedging opportunity in the NFC Championship game. More on the Niners in a bit.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals, Sat. 4:30 pm ET
The initial line movement here has favored the Raiders, but I’m concerned about how much gas Vegas has left in the tank after grinding out four straight wins just to get into the playoffs. Cincinnati was able to rest most of its starters on Sunday, and despite some debate about whether or not extra rest matters, I do think this is a very difficult spot for the Raiders, who also have one less day to recover from Sunday’s thrilling OT win over the Chargers.
“The Bengals offense is built to run over Las Vegas like they did earlier in the year,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zacharly Lucas. “The public has a short memory and will look at how well Las Vegas ran the ball against the Chargers, but their rush defense is among the worst in the NFL. The loss of Darius Philon is also important for the Raiders’ defensive line.”
Derek Carr’s cold-weather struggles are also noteworthy. Carr is 0-5 in his career when the temperature is below 35 degrees and his offense has never scored more than 17 points in those games. The health and conditioning of Darren Waller will also be under the microscope, as he plays his second game coming off the COVID list while also recovering from an injured knee. Waller was held to just 2 receptions on 9 targets in his return to the lineup last week.
Pick: Bengals -4.5 -114
*Bet Thursday at FanDuel, would play up to -5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, Sun. 4:30 pm ET
You can make a case for San Francisco as the best team in the NFL over the back half of the season. Since Week 9, they lead the league in Net Yards Per Play and their defense is 1st in EPA/play against the run. Both the sharps and the oddsmakers respect the Niners, as evident by this short opening line and lack of movement despite the strong early public support for Dallas.
“The 49ers are a popular dark horse team and with the way they had to battle against the Rams to get into the playoffs, it will be hard to not back them as an underdog here,” said WynnBET Senior Trader Motoi Pearson.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense is trending in the wrong direction. Dallas is 28th in opponent yards per play since Week 10 and they’re also near the bottom in YAC (yards after catch). The latter statistic is of particular concern, considering Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have excelled in that category this season.
One thing to keep an eye on this week is the health of Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams, who missed Sunday’s game against the Rams with an elbow injury. Williams did not practice Wednesday but returned to the field Thursday, according to beat reporters. That’s a good sign for Sunday, but if Williams is forced to sit again, I expect this line to push back towards 3.5. I was fortunate to grab a rogue 3.5 at Draftkings on Tuesday night, but it quickly evaporated as the sharp money strongly favors San Francisco at that price.
Picks: 49ers +3.5 -115; 49ers ML +150
*Bet Tuesday at Draftkings, would play down to +3 (-105) and +140
What I’m betting in the other Wild Card Games
Patriots at Bills, Sat. 8:15 pm ET: Buffalo led the NFL this season in Net Yards Per Play, which is noteworthy since last year’s leader in that category (Bucs) won the Super Bowl and two other teams in the top 5 (Chiefs, Packers) played on Championship Sunday. I think the Patriots will try to be very run-heavy in this game to protect rookie QB Mac Jones, but if OC Brian Daboll is aggressive and the Bills jump out to an early lead like they did a few weeks ago, that could negate the run game a bit for New England. Josh Allen has surprisingly struggled in cold weather games with just a 54.3 passer rating when the temperature is under 32 degrees, and while the sample size is small, I think Allen’s legs become more of a factor in high-leverage games. His rushing attempts prop has moved up this week from 6.5 to 7.5 with heavy juice on the over. That being said, if you pair it with Bills moneyline, it turns into an appealing Same Game Parlay.
Eagles at Bucs, Sun. 1:00 pm ET: There is a case to be made for the Eagles, who have one of the league’s best rushing offenses over the back half of the season, being able to move the ball against a Bucs rushing defense that is trending down. The ceiling for Philly is certainly high, however the floor is also very low, and I don’t fully trust the battery of Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni in their playoff debut. I also don’t believe weather will be a huge factor in this game, despite a windy and stormy forecast on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have struggled mightily when stepping up in class this season, going 0-6 straight up against playoff teams and 1-5 against the spread.
SUNDAY UPDATE: My initial strategy with this game was to tease the Bucs early in the week, which I did on Monday, as I expected a lot of Tampa money to flood the market and oddsmakers to move this line through the teaser protection number of 9, as they have done consistently all season with heavily bet favorites. However, some negative injury news has kept this line hovering at around 8 all week, and then there was sharp steam on Philly Sunday morning pushing this down to 7. Instead of being stubborn with my initial Bucs teaser/ML position, I reacted fast and grabbed Eagles +7.5. The best case scenario for me is the Bucs win a close game.
Steelers at Chiefs, Sun. 8:15 pm ET: This number is a bit over-inflated at Chiefs -12.5, as these teams played just three weeks ago at Arrowhead and KC was only favored by 10.5. That being said, it’s very hard to find any other reason to back the Steelers in this spot. Pittsburgh’s analytics are absolutely dreadful, and they are ranked 28th in Net Yards Per Play since Week 9. I can make a case for betting the Chiefs in the 1st half laying a touchdown or shorter if you can find it, but besides that, I’m likely passing on this game.
Cardinals at Rams, Mon. 8:15 pm ET: As discussed above, I am very tempted to bet the Rams here as another passive hedge to my Cardinals Super Bowl position. Arizona has not lost against the number as an underdog this season (6-0) and has also been stellar on the road (8-1), but I’m concerned about their offense without DeAndre Hopkins. Their defense has also trended down sharply over the back half of the season. The Cards might be getting back J.J. Watt, who is practicing this week, but I’m unsure how effective he will be considering he hasn’t played since Week 7 with a shoulder injury. I do expect more market movement on this game, especially with it being the final Wild Card game on the slate. Make sure to watch Monday’s episode of “Let’s Bet It” for the latest analysis and to find out whether or not I pull the trigger on the Rams.
Wild Card Weekend Best Bets:
Bengals -4.5 -114 (1u at FanDuel)
49ers +3.5 -115 (1u at DraftKings)
49ers ML +150 (1u at DraftKings)
6-pt teaser -120: Bucs -1.5, 49ers +9 (1u at DraftKings)
ML parlay +110: Bengals, Bucs, Chiefs (1u at DraftKings)
Same Game Parlay +125: Josh Allen o7.5 Rush Att, Bills ML (1u at Bet365)
Eagles +7.5 -110 (1u at BetMGM)
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Last Week: 2-2, -0.4u (Sides: 1-0 / Totals: 0-0 / Teasers: 0-1)
2021 season: 46-44-2, -4.70u (Sides: 27-24-1 / Totals: 2-4 / Teasers: 17-16-1)
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