NFL Best Bets

The weather will be good in Foxborough this weekend, and that’s obviously good news for the visiting Los Angeles Chargers (even if it will still be a bit cold by their LA standards). It’s safe to say that they have a great chance of clinching a playoff berth when they visit the lowly New England Patriots on Saturday afternoon. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew is 9-6 and currently occupies the second wild-card spot in the AFC. Although the Bolts got blown out by the Buccaneers in Week 15, that is clearly an aberration as opposed to the rule. Los Angeles bounced back with a 34-27 victory over Denver this past Thursday and has won 6 of its last 9 contests. Its other 2 losses during this stretch are 1-possession setbacks against Baltimore and Kansas City.

Meanwhile, New England is 3-12 and has lost 5 in a row. 8 of its last 11 setbacks have come by margins larger than Saturday’s 4-point spread. Rookie QB Drake Maye has been decent, but a once-promising defense has taken a sizable step back of late. The Patriots have allowed at least 24 points in 5 consecutive contests, including 30 or more twice during this stretch. They were without 2 starters in the secondary (Jabrill Peppers and Marcus Jones) during last week’s loss at Buffalo and that could be the case again when the Chargers come to town. Facing a woeful opponent and playing on extra rest, Los Angeles should be expected to win and cover this weekend.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Chargers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The second half of my Broncos vs Bengals predictions is for Saturday’s game to be a high-scoring affair. As I stated in my side preview, Cincinnati’s defense has been terrible all season, and they’ve held their opponents to fewer than 20 points just four times this season. Those games came against the Patriots (17.3 PPG – 30th in the NFL), Giants (14.3 PPG – 32nd in the NFL) and Browns twice (16.3 PPG – 31st in the NFL), so they haven’t exactly been slowing down elite offense. Meanwhile, Denver is putting up 24.2 PPG (10th in the NFL) and has caught fire lately, as they’ve scored 27, 31, 41, 29 and 38 points in their previous five contests.

Now, the Bengals defense has been one of the worst in the league, but the offense has been great to watch. QB Joe Burrow is leading the NFL with 4,229 passing yards and 39 TDs, and the Bengals have scored fewer than 21 points just twice this season. Additionally, they’ve been on an Over tear, as the Over has cashed in 6 of their last 8 games and in 10 of their 15 contests this season. If there’s been one consistent thing for this Bengals team this year, it’s the fact that their games feature plenty of points.

The Over is 5-2 in the 7 Bengals home games this season and 5-3 in the Broncos’ 8 road contests. Additionally, both offenses have averaged 30+ points per game in their last five competitions. This Broncos defense has been touted as one of the league’s best, but Jameis Winston and the Browns and Justin Herbert and the Chargers have lit them up in 2 of the last 3 weeks. I can’t see this Denver defense slowing down Burrow, but the Bengals defense should allow 24+ points against Nix and company, so I’ll back a high-scoring game in Cincinnati this Saturday afternoon.

Broncos vs Bengals prediction: Over 49 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -125.

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The New York Giants are currently slated to have the first overall pick in the upcoming Draft. It’s exactly what New York has been hoping for since they are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. At 2-13, possibly getting the first pick is the only positive that can be taken from this season. The Giants have gone through Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle at quarterback this season and nothing has worked. Last week’s blowout loss to the Falcons marked their 10th in a row. Lock was under center and he completed just 22 of his 39 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Even with young playmakers like Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy, the Giants offense has been a massive disappointment. Plus, the New York defense allowed rookie Michael Penix Jr. (who was making his first career start) and the Falcons offense to score 34 points against them last week.

The Colts won their Week 16 matchup in a very unusual way. Indianapolis scored 34 points against the Titans which would lead you to think “wow, Anthony Richardson finally kicked it into gear!”. But no, Richardson completed just 7 passes in the entire game. The offense ran through Jonathan Taylor who totaled 218 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries. Taylor’s historic performance kept Indy’s playoff hopes alive as they are currently on the bubble with a 14% chance of making it past the regular season. If the Colts want to keep playing past Week 18, they need to win both of their remaining games and for a few other teams to slip up. That gives the Colts motivation to win while the Giants have plenty of motivation to lose since they want to hold onto the #1 pick. Take the Colts to cover this spread against a sinking Giants team.

Colts vs Giants prediction: Colts -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

We’ve got AFC South action on our hands here, as the Tennessee Titans make the trip to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no sugarcoating it – both of these teams have been dreadful this season. They are both 3-12 and have been blown out multiple times. However, I’m amazed to see that Tennessee is a slight underdog in this game, and like its chances of pulling the small upset. For starters, Jacksonville has lost each of its last 2 games to the Jets and Raiders – 2 equally poor franchises. They allowed both Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell to tear through them and have given up the most passing yards (4,148) and most passing yards per attempt (8.2) in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 4th-most passing touchdowns while making the 3rd-fewest interceptions. The Titans offense was unable to capitalize on that 3 weeks ago, as the Jaguars beat them 10-6 in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that Will Levis was under center in that game. The Titans have shown vast improvement with Mason Rudolph under center.

Tennessee has put up 27 and 30 points in its last 2 games, with Rudolph posting 4 touchdown passes in that period. Calvin Ridley has seen an uptick in production, while tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has really started to take off. The Titans’ defense continues to plague them, having allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, but it’s unlikely the Jags will be able to take advantage. Jacksonville managed just 10 points against them last time, and have mustered 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. It could be a rough watch, and the Titans should prevail in this one, but it’s worth taking the extra point as insurance in case it really does come down to the wire.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Titans +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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Before the season started, NFL schedule-makers must’ve been salivating at this matchup, a rematch of the NFC Championship game right before the playoffs. Many might have predicted that this would be a battle for the #1 seed right before January, and a moment for the Lions to get their revenge. Now, the game looks and feels wildly different, although oddsmakers are still positioning themselves with caution, and with respect for the downtrodden Niners. If any one week served as a microcosm for San Francisco’s season, it was Week 16. San Francisco flew to Miami to face a struggling Dolphins squad last Sunday, an outfit that has little chance of even making the postseason. It was a tight contest throughout, but as we’ve gotten used to seeing from the Niners this season, they flailed in the second half. They also only gained 81 total yards on the ground, a consequence of a very injured backfield and offensive line. On Monday, it was announced that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will miss the final 2 games of the season, further adding to the slew of injuries across San Francisco’s roster. They’ve only covered the spread once in their past 7 contests, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Lions, meanwhile, returned to form. After a loss in Week 15 where they allowed the Bills to score 48 points, the Bears were the perfect mince-meat for the hungry Lions. It showed on Sunday. Chicago eventually punched back, but as usual it was too little, too late. Detroit gained 475 yards and had the hapless Bears chasing them for the whole contest. Another big win for the Lions and 2 games remain before they can secure the NFC’s #1 seed. The only reason why we’d consider the 49ers is that Detroit has a look-ahead matchup next Sunday that could decide the NFC North. If the Vikings end up losing on Sunday (4:25 pm ET) to the Packers, that would place Detroit a full game ahead of Minnesota, so the Lions would have a chance to clinch the #1 seed and NFC North with a win at San Francisco. Either way, a Dan Campbell led-roster will undoubtedly come to play, with vengeance on their minds. And, based on 16 weeks of evidence, we simply don’t feel that San Francisco has the manpower or juice to hold them back.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Lions -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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