Jared Smith's NFL conference championship best bets and market insights: Teaser market flashes value

We’re on to Championship Sunday. It’s hard to imagine these two games topping what we saw last weekend, which was the smallest combined margin of victory (15 points) in the NFL divisional round since the merger.

“That was a weekend of NFL football like no other,” said Draftkings Head of Trading Johnny Avello. “The handle was bigger than any we’ve seen for the Divisional Round. Between the plots and endings, [last] weekend’s stories should be on the bestseller list.”

I will also try to live up to the hype of last week’s selections, which went 3-1 for a net gain of 2.05 units. Even better, it pushed the best bets column back to positive territory overall. During the playoffs, we are 8-3 for a gain of 5.50 units to give us a chance to finish in the black this season.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Sun. 3:05 pm ET

This line opened Chiefs -6.5 before quickly jumping to -7, and has been slowly trending towards -7.5 all week as respected money has backed the favorite. That means if you like the Bengals, I would wait until Sunday as you likely will get a better number.

A key factor to consider this week is the emergence of Jerick McKinnon, and return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, neither of whom played in the Week 17 matchup.

Travis Kelce was also in his first game back from COVID in that game and was held to just 5 catches on 25 yards. All three should have an impact in the passing game this week considering the Bengals allow the 4th-most receptions to tight ends (96) and 5th most to running backs (108) this season.

The one injury to keep an eye on is Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu, who returned to practice Thursday as he works his way back from a concussion. That’s a good sign, but if the Honey Badger can’t go, it means Daniel Sorensen gets elevated to a starting role, which is a major downgrade for KC in the secondary.

Despite a high total, this game sets up nicely as a 6-point teaser leg. I get to move the Chiefs through both key numbers of 7 and 3, and eliminate the risk of a backdoor cover from Joe Burrow. The more I dig into the matchups, especially the Chiefs offense against the Bengals defense, it’s hard to find a path to victory for Cincinnati.

I also don’t see the Bengals having the same fortunate whistle this time around, as they had four drives extended due to penalties during that Week 17 comeback. Bill Vinovich is the official for this game, and his crew has called just 12 defensive pass interference penalties all season, the fewest in the league.

Finally, Kansas City has the great equalizer. Patrick Mahomes has elevated his play in the postseason, and looks to be in peak form.  When the game is on the line, I expect Mahomes to make the necessary plays for the Chiefs to advance.

Earlier this week in my opening lines column I recommended a 1-unit play on the over at 53.5, with the expectation that the total would move higher. The market has agreed with me, and now I’m seeing 54.5 as the consensus total at the time of publication. However, while I do think both teams will move the ball effectively, I can also see both relying on their run game to control tempo, especially Cincinnati.

“If the Bengals want to have any chance in this one they need to control time of possession,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zachary Lucas.

For that reason, I will be coming back on the under at 55 or higher and try to thread the needle on a slim 2-point middle. Neither rises to the level of a “best bet”, so the total is not a play I’m targeting in this week’s column.