Survive and advance. We were unlucky not to go 3-0 with our best bets from the round of 64, as only a total collapse by San Diego State cost us a perfect day. But in March, no lead is safe.
On to the Round of 32, where two underdog spots jumped out to me immediately while looking ahead to Saturday’s slate.
Memphis +11.5 (-110) over Gonzaga (1.5u)
The Tigers outclassed Boise State for most of the game on Thursday despite some 2nd-half turnovers that made things closer than the final scoreline indicated. Freshman Emoni Bates came off the bench and played for the first time since January 27, which is a good sign going forward for this deep and talented Memphis team. Gonzaga showed their spurtability against an undermanned Georgia State team, almost covering the number despite trailing in the 2nd half, but overall this Bulldogs team does not look like the finished product at the moment. I expect the size and athleticism of Memphis to keep them in this game, especially on the defensive end, and would not be shocked if they sprung the upset here. That being said, I would still play Memphis on the spread down to 10.5.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Memphis vs Gonzaga
Saint Mary’s +3.5 (-110) over UCLA (1.5u)
The Gaels have the talent and moxie to get to the Final Four, and all of it was on full display in their 29-point drubbing over Indiana. UCLA looked shaky at times against Akron, especially on offense, being held to under 60 points for the first time all season. The Zips’ defense is strong, but it pales in comparison to Saint Mary’s, who have already held Gonzaga to under 60 earlier this season. The Gaels’ backcourt duo of Logan Johnson and Tommy Kuhse are dangerous, and I think they have more firepower than the Bruins. Unless UCLA can pull a rabbit out of their hat like they did against the Zips, I think Saint Mary’s wins outright and punches a ticket for the Sweet 16, so I will also be adding a unit to the money line and would play the Gaels down to +2.5 on the spread.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for UCLA vs Saint Mary’s
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Tourney best bets: 2-1, +1.125u
Round of 64: 2-1, +1.125u
To track all of my bets, including a personal contest where I pick all 67 tournament games against the spread, check out my Google spreadsheet.
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