Jared Smith's Early Birds: Opening NFL Week 10 betting lines, odds and spreads

Week 10 of the NFL season is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening NFL Week 10 betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith offers his insight into the lines and his early betting takeaways for this week’s games.

Buy Low: Bucs vs Seahawks

This line opened Bucs -9 over the summer before these teams started veering in opposite directions, eventually leading to a Bucs -2 lookahead last week and -1 reopener Sunday night after both teams picked up victories. Tom Brady and the offense looked lifeless for 59 minutes against the Rams before erupting and perhaps saving the season with a touchdown in the final seconds. Despite the victory, it’s hard to imagine the public supporting the Bucs in the market this week.

That means I could see a stinky public dog marinating with Seattle, so let’s try to find some fleas. It starts with Geno Smith, who played well again in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals, but his efficiency has peaked a bit since the season began. Over the last 3 weeks, Smith is outside the top 10 in QB efficiency after grading inside the top 5 for the first 6 weeks. We haven’t seen a true clunker performance yet, and considering how well he’s played, I wouldn’t expect a full collapse, but it’s fair to expect more regression with Geno down the stretch.

I was impressed with the Bucs defense on Sunday, but you also have to consider the context involved with facing a Rams offensive line playing at a bottom-feeder level right now, so it’s hard to say that kind of dominance in the trenches will carry over to this week. Seattle’s offense entered Sunday averaging 6 yards per play and the OL was ranked 5th in pass block win rate, so Geno should have more time in the pocket this week and is more mobile than Matthew Stafford.

Market prediction: I expect the public to like Seattle and the sharps to favor Tampa, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this line drifts back towards the key number of 3 later this week.

Sell High: Eagles vs Commanders

This line opened Philly -4 over the summer and reopened -10 last week, a fairly significant move through a key number. Favorites of 7+ are just 11-19 ATS (Chiefs/Titans pending SNF) this season, so it’s fair to look at the underdog first here, but I’m also hesitant after watching the film from Week 4 when these teams last played. The Eagles sacked Carson Wentz 9 times in that game and easily covered the 6-point spread while allowing just 8 points and 240 yards of total offense.

Washington has shown some life since making the switch from Wentz to Taylor Heinicke 3 weeks ago, but they blew a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter against the Vikings on Sunday and only gained 4.3 yards per play. Meanwhile, the Eagles will have an extra three days of rest after playing on Thursday, so it’s hard to say Washington has momentum heading into this divisional rematch.

Philly’s rushing defense was a little suspect last Thursday without big man Jordan Davis anchoring the middle of the line. Despite having no weapons on the outside for Davis Mills to throw to, Houston still gained 5.3 yards per carry thanks to a big effort by Dameon Pierce. I can see the Commanders having similar success on the ground and controlling the tempo just enough to stay within the number.

Market prediction: If Chase Young is activated this week, I can see there being some buyback on the Commanders around the lookahead number of 10, but I would be shocked if the public was overly excited to back them based on what they saw on Sunday.

Free Fall: Packers at Cowboys

Green Bay opened as 4.5-point favorites when this line originated over the summer but has since flipped with Dallas reopening as a 3-point favorite last week. The market got stretched even further on Sunday after the Packers were upset by the Lions in an ugly fashion, suffering several key injuries in the process.

On defense, LB Rashan Gary (Knee) and CB Eric Stokes (lower body) were both spotted on crutches after getting knocked out of the game. On offense, RB Aaron Jones (foot) and WR Romeo Doubs (ankle) were also seen in walking boots. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers threw 3 picks and graded out negatively in CPOE and EPA/play.

The Cowboys almost hung a 50-burger on the Bears two weeks ago and will enter this game relatively healthy off the bye. Ezekiel Elliot’s knee/thigh will be a question this week, but considering how well Tony Pollard has played in his absence, I don’t think it matters which back carries the load for Dallas.

Market prediction: Considering the opposite directions these two teams are heading in, I can see both public and sharp money on the Cowboys this week, so don’t be surprised if this continues to trend towards that key number of 7. So if you like Dallas, I would bet early.