Last week I put the finishing touches on my college football futures portfolio; now it’s time to set our sights on the NFL.
It’s been a while since I opened the NFL futures vault — over 3 months, in fact. Back in May I bet 2 units on the Jets over 5.5 wins. Just a few days later the Eagles made a move for A.J. Brown, which prompted a second bet on Philly over 8.5 wins also for 2 units, detailed below.
I was going to wait until July/August to bet Eagles o8.5 wins at FD but Howie Roseman is forcing my hand
Officially in for 2 units pic.twitter.com/TP3sRCr8R5
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) May 18, 2022
I will update the status of both bets heading into the season and whether or not we should hold the positions, or try to lock in some risk-free profit. I will also add to my portfolio with a season-long player prop, likely the last futures bet I will make prior to Week 1.
Market indicating it’s time to sell on the Jets
Let’s start with my hometown team. The Jets made a splash at the 2022 NFL Draft, and my strategy behind committing to them so early was to capitalize on the rare positive attention they were receiving from the media. The goal was always to “scalp” the position by betting the other side after the market moved, locking in some risk-free profit before the season even began.
Things were going great with that strategy until Zach Wilson injured his knee in the preseason, which sent the market spiraling in the other direction.
“Yeah, very unfortunate timing with Wilson and that Becton injury doesn’t help either,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “The number was definitely heading your way.”
Those close to Zach Wilson are cautiously optimistic that the worst-case scenario was avoided with his knee, multiple sources told The Athletic, but everyone is waiting to pass any judgement until the MRI tomorrow. #Jets
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) August 13, 2022
Thankfully the news on Wilson has been relatively positive since his injury, which recently pushed the market back to a point where I can buy the other side for a small profit. At the time of publication I found Caesars to have the best price on the Jets under 5.5 wins at +140. My original over bet was made at -125.
The arbitrage math is illustrated above, but basically I will net 2.78% ROI on the original investment. Considering that number is almost as high as the Jets win total the last few seasons, I’ll consider this bet a success.
Eagles stock continues to rise
The situation in Philly is drastically different as the Eagles’ win total number has consistently risen all summer long. So much that I now have the opportunity to lock in 6.67% ROI by betting under 8.5 wins at +200. My original over bet was made at -150.
That being said, I think this bet is one we should hold on to for at least the first 2 weeks of the season, as the Eagles are currently favored in both games at the Lions and home to the Vikings.
If Philly starts 2-0, we will be in great shape to win the bet outright, or bet the under at a much more favorable price thanks to in-season win totals — which have become a more popular menu item at sportsbooks in recent years.
“I like those markets because a lot of the time these places overreact to a bad week or 2,” added Degnon.
Be sure to keep an eye out for in-season win totals at whatever sportsbook you do your shopping at, and keep a watchful eye on my Twitter for updates on our Eagles win total bet once the season gets underway.
My favorite season-long NFL player prop: Trevor Lawrence Under 14.5 interceptions (-110) – risk 3 units on DK
Of all the ways to bet on the Jags in the season-long markets, this appears to be the most efficient way. Todd Fuhrman and Payne Insider hatched this bet during their AFC South preview podcast earlier this summer. They not only did a fantastic job diving deep into each team, but they also made a very compelling argument for why Lawrence will leap forward in year two after throwing a league-high 17 interceptions during his rookie campaign.
First things first, the vibe in Jacksonville seems drastically different this year. Former head coach Urban Meyer is replaced by Doug Pederson, which should be a huge boost to a Jags offense that finished bottom 5 in efficiency last season.
The offensive line was upgraded this offseason with the addition of Brandon Scherff, and the pass-catchers have more polish with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones added to the mix. The return of Travis Etienne from an injury that cost him all of last season should also provide Lawrence with a safe insurance policy on checkdowns.
Finally, the schedule is also much more favorable, with Jacksonville slated to face the 2nd easiest group of defenses this season, after suffering through the 3rd most difficult in 2021.
This Week’s Portfolio
Jets u5.5 wins +140 (risk 1.875u at Caesars, hedging my over bet)
Trevor Lawrence u14.5 INTs -110 (risk 3u at Draftkings)
For a full list of my NFL futures bets heading into the season, click here
Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2022 NFL season.
